567
FXUS63 KMPX 200412
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More rain is likely late tonight in southwestern Minnesota
  with PoPs increasing to the east early tomorrow morning.
  Severe weather is not expected with this round of rain.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday afternoon
  and night in western Minnesota. Main threats will be damaging
  winds and heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals from Thursday
  through Friday night may exceed 2-4" in some places across
  south central Minnesota.

- Lingering showers are possible Saturday morning with drier
  conditions expected through Monday. Chances for showers and
  thunderstorms are expected through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight through Friday...We`re drying out and enjoying some
cooler temperatures and lower dew points today thanks to
northwest flow behind yesterday`s cold front. This evening and
overnight look to remain mostly dry except for a few scattered
showers to our east until the LLJ increases in the early
morning. The chance for precip increases right before sunrise
for southwestern Minnesota before moving east throughout the
morning before ending by early afternoon. There is not any risk
of severe weather. QPF totals do not look too high for this
round of rain. We are looking at around 0.1-0.3" in southwestern
Minnesota while eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin sees
much less with amounts tending to stay under one tenth. Tomorrow
afternoon is looking to be similar to today with lingering
clouds and highs in the high 60s and low 70s.

PoPs and QPF increase quickly Thursday night through Friday
morning as a LLJ works in across southwestern Minnesota. While
severe weather is not expected, heavy rainfall will certainly
pose a threat for flooding concerns. PWs are forecast to
increase to near climatological max (around 1.8") as warm moist
air is advected northward overnight. WPC has placed far
southwestern Minnesota under a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for
excessive rainfall through 12z Friday with that risk area being
expanded across all of south central Minnesota and into western
Wisconsin through 12z Saturday. There`s still some shifting
around of the heaviest axis of precip expected, so the potential
for a Flash Flood Watch will be evaluated in future forecasts.
However, upwards of 3" of rain seem plausible through Saturday
morning. The other concern for Friday is the potential for some
strong to severe thunderstorms. A warm front is forecast to lift
northward through the day with instability building in the warm
sector during the afternoon. The main threat appears to be
damaging winds, though some elevated storms may pose a large
hail risk over far western Minnesota. The LLJ will kick in again
overnight, reinforcing the threat for heavy rain and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will
end from west to east through Saturday afternoon and we look to
finally dry out for Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds
in.

We`ll see a bit of a pattern shift early next week, but our
continued low chances for precip will stick around. The ridge
across the eastern CONUS will finally break down, but then we
will find ourselves on the eastern periphery of a building ridge
across the Four Corners region. Temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 80s through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High clouds prevalent across all TAF sites at initialization.
Ceilings will steadily lower overnight into Thursday morning
with rain showers possible mid-to-late Thursday morning. Chances
better for rain showers reaching the terminals Thursday
afternoon in one swath of rain. Another swath looks to come
Thursday night through Friday morning, with a potential break
in between for Thursday evening. High degree of uncertainty on
the timing/placement of any possible CB/TS so have omitted its
mention with this set. Winds will run NE to E throughout the
period with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...First chance for rain showers looks to come from around
sunrise to late Thursday morning, but the better chance for
steady rain will come late morning and continue through most of
the afternoon hours. Showers will diminish late afternoon into
the evening, with additional steady rain coming mid-to-late
Thursday evening through Friday morning. Will hold off mention
of CB/TS until trends become more apparent in short-term models
and radar trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...Periods of -RA/MVFR, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...Periods of -RA/MVFR early, chc -RA/MVFR late. Wind SW
10-15 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC