558
FNUS73 KMPX 231309
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Minowa WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
809 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Minowa WMA fire, southerly winds at ignition between 5-10
mph will increase to 10-15 mph by late morning with gusts near 20
mph. RH values are in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and
will fall between 40-45 percent this afternoon. Precipitation
chances are low today, but showers and thunderstorms will become
likely overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 78.
RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /115200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (121300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  68  71  73  74  75  76  77  77  76  74  71
RH..............72  61  53  48  46  43  42  40  39  40  43  47
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  12  14  14  15  16  17  17  18  17  16  15
20 FT wind gust.16  18  20  20  22  23  24  25  25  25  24  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.0 3.4 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  22  23  23  24  23  26  28  28  20
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (81900 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (14700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (9400 knot-ft) late in the night early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    21 to 22 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the late morning
                    and early afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (108300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 26 mph shifting to the west 26
                    to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Chad August
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414994.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us