898
FXUS63 KMQT 220856
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
456 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers end from west to east through today as the cold front
  exits the UP. Gusty NW winds behind the front, with the
  highest gusts along the eastern shores of Lake Superior up to
  30 mph.

- Other than a low chance (15-25%) of showers Tuesday afternoon
  through Tuesday night associated with a low pressure passing
  through Lower Michigan, dry weather is expected this week.

- Patchy frost is possible (~20%) for typical cold spots of
  interior western Upper Michigan both Monday and Tuesday
  mornings.

- Supportive setup for patchy fog (~25%) each morning next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Water vapor imagery/surface analysis early this morning shows a
shortwave trough now positioned over northwest Ontario with its
associated cold front extending into Upper Michigan.  This cold
front will be the main focus this morning as it continues its
eastward progression across Upper Michigan.  Showers and
thunderstorms have been slow to move into the UP all night, but
current radar mosaic has had an uptick in activity across northeast
Wisconsin over the last few hours.  This matches well with HRRR
guidance, which really shows expansion into Menominee County and
northeastward after Sun 12Z. By mid morning, anticipate much of the
eastern third of the UP to be in the 50-75% range for precipitation
chances.  Meanwhile, will also carry mention of thunderstorms
despite modest MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg and effective shear
less than 30 kts. So, even though there will be no severe
weather, cannot rule out some small hail and brief, heavy
downpours with some of these showers/storms. As the
aforementioned cold front exits the area, most of the UP will be
dry by late afternoon. Nonetheless, northwest winds in the wake
will be strong across the tip of the Keweenaw with gusts up to
30 mph. As far as temperatures, the cooldown has arrived with
highs only projected to top off in the 60s this afternoon.
Currently, temperatures across the UP are generally in the
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tonight through Monday, the mid level trough over Lake Superior and
northern Ontario lifts northeast toward Hudson Bay while another
trough to the west moves southeast to the Dakotas. This allows for
weak high pressure to shift northeast from MN to northern
Ontario/Quebec. The associated cold front and showers are expected
to already have exited the CWA by tonight, leaving clearing skies
tonight save for a scattered low level deck over north-central Upper
MI. This low level cloud deck looks to clear out Monday morning
leaving mostly Sunny skies the rest of the day. A drier airmass
behind the cold front and subsidence from the weak high pressure
will help yield a cooler night. Lows tonight are expected in the mid
30s to upper 40s, warmer by the Great Lakes, especially beneath
scattered low cloud deck in north-central UP. Some patchy frost may
develop in the interior west and also some patchy fog may develop in
the far west late tonight. Highs on Monday will peak in the 60s.

Monday night through the mid portion of next week, the trough over
the Dakotas dives southeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley
while a shortwave over the Mid Mississippi Valley moves northeast
over Lower MI and the Lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile ridging is
building over the western CONUS. This sends a low pressure system
over southern IL on Tuesday to lower MI. Then the low takes a slower
and more northerly track Tuesday night through Wednesday night to
Quebec. While some light showers may scrape the south and eastern
portions of the UP Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, not much of
any accumulations are expected as the better forcing remains outside
the CWA. Otherwise, highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be just
above normal in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Monday night could be
another cool night with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Patchy
frost is possible again in the interior west. Model soundings show a
more impressive inversion Monday night compared to tonight, so more
patchy fog is possible Monday night across the entire UP.

The mid level ridge positioned over the Rockies Wednesday morning
shifts east toward the Great Lakes for next weekend. There are some
discrepancies how the trough that dives southeast to the Lower
Mississippi Valley mid next week interacts with potential tropical
system. That said, the stronger ridging moving over the Great Lakes
region favors drier weather with warmer than normal temps in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Cold front moving through Upper Michigan tonight and Sunday will
support cloud bases lowering and ceilings developing, mainly at
KSAW, although KIWD and KCMX may experience MVFR ceilings this
morning before scattering out. Expect conditions to improve through
the day Sunday. Models continue to suggest that showers, perhaps
mixed with some thunderstorms, will develop later tonight and impact
KSAW. These same models have, notably, struggled all night with
upstream convection moving into the U.P., so confidence is low.
Post frontal airmass will also support some gusts of 20-25kts,
mainly at KSAW and KCMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front currently over central Lake Superior will continue east
across the rest of the lake this morning. South-southwest winds
ahead of the cold front quickly veer northwest as the front passes,
gusting up to 20-30 kts. Some thunderstorms are possible over the
east half of the lake this morning with the passing cold front,
although no strong to severe weather is anticipated. Waves behind
the front will peak between 4 and 5 feet along the western UP shores
this morning and over the east half of the lake between 6 and 7 feet
later this morning through this evening; waves fall below 4 feet
lakewide by Monday morning. Northwest winds gradually fall below 20
kts from west to east across the lake this afternoon through this
evening, veering north tonight. Although a low pressure system
tracks through Lower MI Tuesday night and Wednesday, winds are
expected to remain below 20 kts the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this
     evening for MIZ005.

  Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...Jablonski