975
FXUS63 KMQT 131723
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke from Canada will be over the area through at least
Monday resulting in air quality concerns and reduced visibility.

- 20% chance of a shower or storm in the far western UP tonight
between 8 pm and 1 am EDT. Any storms that occur are capable of
gusty winds and hail.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday into
Wednesday (30-60%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Early afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows broad
midlevel troughing over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes. A
weak impulse in NW flow is near the Grand Forks, ND area, with an
attendant surface trough cutting NE to SW across western ON and the
Dakotas. A seasonably dry airmass is in place over the UP with PWATs
around 0.8", and just some fair weather cu across portions of the
UP. This evening, as the midlevel impulse and surface trough
approach from the west, moisture pooling ahead of this feature is
expected to result in a broken band of showers and storms developing
over the Minnesota Arrowhead moving SE. Consensus in the CAMs is for
this activity to weaken as it crosses western Lake Superior, with
about a 20-30% chance of some showers/storms surviving into far
wester portions of the UP in the 8p-1a EDT frame. Severe weather
threat is low given marginal instability of 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less
(per HREF mean), but a gusty storm with hail can`t be ruled out with
dry air at low-levels and 35-40kt of deep layer shear. Otherwise,
fairly mild tonight with SW flow ahead of this trough, with lows
mainly in the 60s.

Monday is forecast to be seasonably warm with highs ranging through
the 80s, and little to no evidence for precipitation chances with
flat zonal flow aloft and little to no instability. An isolated
shower can`t be ruled out along lake breezes near Delta/Schoolcraft
with some enhanced low-level moisture pooling there, but less than
20% so will not mention.

Wildfire smoke will continue to plague the area through Monday. The
HRRR-smoke model suggests the smoke dissipating somewhat tonight
after the trough passage, but another plume is expected to follow
Monday. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect per MI EGLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible Sunday
night as a weakening boundary tries to move through from the west.
For early next week, zonal midlevel flow initially will become
more amplified with time over the northern tier of the CONUS as
troughing digs into the northern Plains, resulting in SW flow
over the local area. At the surface, an area of low pressure
will develop over the Rockies/central Plains, with a warm front
extending NE into the northern Plains or upper Great Lakes.
After a dry and seasonably warm day Monday (highs mainly in the
80s), precipitation chances enter the picture again
Tuesday/Wednesday as impulses in the SW flow team up with
diurnal instability to generate areas of showers and
thunderstorms. There is still uncertainty with timing and
placement of the front upon which most of the activity should be
focused, so general broad-brush chance to low-likely (30-60%)
PoPs will suffice, with Wednesday having relatively higher
probabilities for precipitation over most areas. With relatively
more ensemble members having the front north of our area on
Tuesday, another warm day in the 80s looks likely, with a cool-
down becoming more likely Wednesday on the back side of the
front. Gradually trending drier and seasonably cool for the end
of the week as high pressure builds over the northern
Plains/Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Wildfire smoke continues to result in prevailing MVFR vsby this
afternoon, which is expected to largely continue into tonight. While
there may be a brief respite in the smoke and reduced vsby tonight,
another plume is expected to spread into the UP from the west on
Monday morning. VFR cigs are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. A weakening area of showers and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms will approach IWD in the 01-05Z timeframe; PROB30 for
TS added here. Probability of TS is around 20% at CMX in the same
timeframe and near zero at SAW so mention was not included in the
TAFs for those terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Visibility will continue to be reduced in areas of fog and wildfire
smoke into Monday. Winds will increase with west-southwesterly gusts
around 20 kt through today, mainly over the western half. A
weakening band of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the
western lake this evening (40% chance). Winds diminish early in the
week, but could increase to near 20 kt from the north late in the
week behind a frontal boundary. Unsettled weather returns
Tuesday/Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms possible, plus the potential for fog where rainfall
occurs.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Monday night
     for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...Thompson