820
FXUS63 KMQT 131143
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
743 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds are expected today along with additional
  chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. There is a
  marginal risk (category 1/5) of severe weather for most of the
  UP, with the main threats being large hail in excess of an
  inch and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

- Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and
  thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with
  some areas approaching 90 for highs by next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

RAP analysis shows a mid level trough over southern Manitoba with a
weak low pressure trough at 1004 mb extending over Lake Superior and
into the UP. A cold front drapes from western lake superior
northeast into northern Ontario. Showers and lingering thunderstorms
have almost made their way out of the UP, but dry weather is
expected within the next hour as PVA diminishes and this sfc low
pressure trough slowly moves east this morning.

This dry period is only expected to be brief as mid level trough
rotates east through northern Ontario, sending a stream of vorticity
south across the UP today. As the sfc low pressure trough progresses
east toward Quebec, it deepens and brings the cold front eastward
across the UP through early this afternoon. CAMs do not have the
greatest agreement on the timing of shower and storm activity today,
but there does seem to be a consensus on two periods. The first one
being a round progressing east across the UP with the cold front.
The second period would be more PVA forced in the later part of the
afternoon. The marginal risk for much of the UP seems appropriate
for today as neither of these rounds is a home run. Bulk shear of
~50 kts will be sufficient for storms throughout the day, but the
best instability (6/13 0z HREF mean SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg) is
expected in the earlier part of the afternoon ahead of mid level
lapse rates increasing to near 7C/km. That said, some isolated
stronger to severe storms are possible. If any severe storms are
able to develop (5% chance), the main threats will be hail and winds.

CAA and drier air behind the cold front will allow for some good
mixing resulting in some gusty northwest winds. While the 6/13 0z
HREF indicates only a 40-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph,
model soundings do indicate the potential for isolated gusts as high
as 40 to even 50 mph. These gusts are not expected to be
consistently high enough for an advisory, but it will still be a
gusty day. Highs for the most part are expected in the 70s with the
south central UP being warmer in the low to mid 80s. The other
exception to highs in the 70s would be those near Lake Superior
which may only see highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

After a few lingering showers/thunderstorms (far south) this
evening, high pressure will strengthen over Upper Michigan. This
will bring a lull to the active weather and dry conditions for a
bit. Meanwhile though, focus will be on a potent cutoff low over the
Pacific Northwest and the potential for several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend/next week ahead and with it.
With multiple lifting mechanisms in the pattern, there will still be
much ambiguity in regard to timing and strength of storms.  The
first round, though, is expected to arrive late Saturday as a wave
approaches just ahead of a surface low centered over central
Manitoba.  This disturbance will help to transport moisture from the
Gulf and strong WAA ahead of the aforementioned cutoff and surface
lows.  And, early indications are trending toward a cold front
moving through this environment on Sunday.

Again, it is still tough to pinpoint the details of the dynamics,
but one thing for certain is that there will be a strong warming
trend through next week. And, this hints at some unstable
environments in place until the timing of the dynamics come into
better agreement.  Temperatures will already start out above normal
on Friday with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.  And, the
trend will continue through the weekend with mid to upper 70s and
finally mid to upper 80s across portions of the interior by Monday
and through the week.  So, overall a warm and wetter pattern
throughout the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 743 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites for the duration
of the 12Z TAF period. The exception to this would be for a period
of MVFR to possibly IFR cigs at CMX this morning with northwest
upslope flow off Lake Superior. Daytime mixing will support gusty
west becoming northwest winds with the current forecast for 25-30kt,
but some guidance suggests mixing could support infrequent gusts
upwards of 40kts in the afternoon. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly at CMX and SAW.
With low confidence in timing and coverage, opted to only include
VCSH at SAW and CMX for now. Winds taper off this evening as showers
diminish.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Southwesterly winds will become west-northwesterly and increase
behind a cold front later this morning with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
By Friday, winds will return to less than 20 knots with the return
of high pressure where they will stay until early Sunday morning. At
that point, the next cold front will bring southerly winds of 20 to
25 knots along with 4 to 5 foot waves along the US/Canada border on
Lake Superior.  In addition, thunderstorm chances will return to the
forecast, but it is too early to determine severity.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...TDUD