637
FXUS63 KMQT 191727
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light rain showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible
over the east half the rest of this afternoon. Some showers and a
couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the south central
tonight.

-Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay
River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts.

-Potential heavy rain event this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Isolated to scattered light rain showers, with possibly a couple
rumbles of thunder thrown in, look to continue over the eastern half
of the U.P. this afternoon as the decaying cold front continues
crawling eastwards. The precipitation looks to mostly conclude over
our area by early this evening as weak high pressure ridging builds
into Lake Superior. However, with a stationary front setting up over
Wisconsin tonight, we could see some on-and-off rain showers and
possibly a couple rumbles of thunder over the south central through
tonight.

Overall, temperatures today have been much cooler than what we saw
yesterday, with many areas already having hit there high around 70
to the mid 70s today. Moving into tonight, low temperatures are
expected to be cooler, mainly getting down into the 50s with some
spots possibly getting into the upper 40s.

We continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns along the Chocolay
River near Harvey and also over the west where some places got
rainfall in excess of 3 inches (some as much as 5 inches!).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Weak lower to midlevel ridging builds southward from Ontario for
Thursday while a weak trough ripples through WI and the LP. With dry
lower to midlevels apparent in soundings, a drier scenario will
likely win out for Thursday - but still will allow for the
possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder, mainly across
the south-central UP.

Thursday night, a shortwave begins to eject out of the Rockies,
kicking off warm frontogenesis and our next chances for rain and
thunderstorms as early as Friday morning. The front stalls out
somewhere in our vicinity Friday, strengthening Friday evening into
early this weekend as a surface low closes off and deepens, and a 30-
45kt LLJ becomes directed across the boundary. We could see some
heavy rainfall out of this, as ensembles show PWATs near the max of
modeled climatology (nearly 2"). With training very possible along
the front given it`s slow movement northwards, we may need to keep
an eye on flooding concerns across our area. Will note that
ensembles are indicating a high chance (as high as 50-70% chance)
for rain totals in excess of an inch across much of the area by
Saturday evening, in particular across the western UP, where we`ve
been able to pick up on quite a bit of rainfall over the past
several days already. The low moves ENE through the area Saturday
night, and we may be able to see a brief dry period overnight into
early Sunday before another clipper drops through during the daytime
Sunday. This will bring in another round of showers and storms to
finish out the weekend.

Moving into early next week, expect ridging and finally some drier
weather as a high pressure moves from the Plains through the
Midwest. This will give way to yet another potential for some wet
weather by Tuesday as a shortwave moving through Ontario drags a
cold front through the Great Lakes.

Overall, expect temperatures to be near normal for the extended
period, with some days showing below normal high temperatures (such
as Thursday, Friday, and Sunday). Outside of the rain and storm
chances throughout the next week, the only other thing worth
mentioning is the possibility for localized river flooding along the
Chocolay River near Harvey. With much of the basin having received
between 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall over the past 24+ hours, and the
Observation Program Leader having gone out to the Chocolay near
Yelden (around Skandia) and seeing the river already up to the
bridge, there may be some isolated spots along the river near Harvey
that could see some river flooding issues that are more typical to
the Spring-time (water in basements, etc.) This situation will
continue to be monitored by the staff here at WFO MQT, as well as
the NCRFC while the water from the recent rainfall slowly exits the
Chocolay River Basin into Lake Superior.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Conditions look to improve to VFR across all of the TAF sites by the
mid afternoon, with cigs continuing to improve as we move into the
late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the gusty westerly winds
this afternoon look to veer to the northwest this afternoon and the
north this evening as they generally weaken with time today. Expect
fairly light winds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Winds remain fairly erratic early this morning with lingering
convection as a cold front slowly moves through the area. That said,
ahead of the front, winds should primarily be out of the south while
veering to the SW then west behind it. Gusts to 20-25kts remain
common across the lake, though higher gusts up to 25-30kts will be
possible especially between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale this
morning. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by the early evening
as ridging builds in over Lake Superior behind the decaying cold
front boundary. Winds stay light at until this weekend, when a
Colorado Low followed by a Clipper system will see winds gusting to
around 20kts Saturday and Sunday. Ridging into early next week will
bring a return to quiet weather.

The other mentionable hazard over Lake Superior for the next several
days is thunderstorms. Thunderstorms continue to move across the
central portions of the lake early this morning, finally moving out
by the early afternoon. Then, chances for thunderstorms return
Friday and continue through the weekend with our aforementioned
systems moving through, though severe weather is not looking likely
at this point.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC