872
FXUS63 KMQT 151932
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated non-severe showers and storms into early evening
  along a narrow corridor from Iron through Baraga and western
  Marquette counties.

- Extended stretch of well above normal temperatures continues
  through the forecast period with highs mainly in the upper 70s
  and 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Despite large scale high pressure dominating much of the Great Lakes
and northeast CONUS, water vapor imagery does show a connection to
Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic moisture into the Upper Great Lakes
region this afternoon. This moisture connection has allowed
surface dew points to climb into the mid 60s across much of the
west half of the U.P. this afternoon. MLCAPE values near 1000
j/kg and minimal to no capping noted on soundings has led to the
initiation of a few showers and isolated t-storms over central
Iron County early this afternoon at the nose of the sfc theta-e
ridge. A few of the CAMs suggest isolated showers could continue
into early evening along a fairly narrow low-level convergence
zone and theta-e ridge axis extending from Iron into Baraga and
nw Marquette counties. With weak wind shear, none of these
storms will become strong or severe but could produce brief
heavy downpours.

After showers die out over central Lake Superior tonight with loss
of diurnal heating, much of the rest of the night should be quiet
under the dome of high pressure. Models hint that some convection
could reinitiate into north central MN at the nose of a weak LLJ
this evening, and then possibly advect into the western U.P. toward
12Z Monday, but given model uncertainty with this happening only
have slight chc pops barely reaching into the far western U.P.
toward sunrise. Given high dew points over the area it`s also not
out of the question that patchy fog could form at a few locations,
especially where showers occur.

Expect min temps tonight ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s under
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

BLUF: Mainly calm weather dominates the extended period, although
some light rain showers and some thunderstorms are possible over the
west tonight and Monday. Expect the late summer-like conditions to
continue through the week, although temperatures may slightly
decrease late this week as troughing approaches from the west by
next weekend. Therefore, if you can, enjoy those outdoor activities
while you still can!

Some isolated rain showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible
over the western U.P. late tonight through Monday as a shortwave
riding along the ridging over the Great Lakes moves overtop us.
While plenty of instability is available in the atmosphere by the
Monday afternoon hours, with the better forcing located to our west
and north, rain showers and storms will have a difficult time firing
up. Therefore, any convection that we do see late tonight through
Monday will more than likely be dependent on hard to pin down
mesoscale/local variables, such as storm dynamics and localized
topography. With the better PWATs further to our west and north too,
not much rainfall is expected to fall out of the showers and storms
we do see; expect no more than a quarter of an inch in the heaviest
rain spots, with many areas even over the west failing to receive
anything.

Expect the rest of this week to be dry as high pressure ridging
settles across the Upper Great Lakes while troughing digs into the
western U.S.. While the warmest day is expected on Monday with highs
possibly getting into the mid to upper 80s in the interior areas,
the rest of the work week is very likely (80+%) to see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies
dominating overhead due to the ridging. Fire weather concerns should
be limited this week due to the light winds and more "moist" min
RHs. However, fuels may need to be monitored as the lack of rainfall
could further dry them out. By next weekend, model spread increases
amongst the differing suites. However, there is still a general
trend to push the timing of incoming rainfall back to the end or
past the end of the extended period. Therefore, I`m highly doubtful
(80+% chance) that we will see rainfall over our area until at least
early next week. However, we could see cloud cover increase from the
west as the troughing slowly tries to battle its way into our neck-
of-the-woods this next weekend; this increase in clouds would drop
our daytime high temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR will prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW. Some
scattered showers and isolated storms could develop between CMX
and SAW this afternoon but should not have much impact on either
site before dissipating out over Lake Superior this evening.
Some showers could redevelop toward 12Z Monday into the west and
could reach into IWD but this probability is too uncertain at
this time to include in the TAF. Expect southerly wind gusts to
20 knots at IWD this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through this week as
ridging remains over the Upper Great Lakes. Nevertheless, we could
see a few showers and thunderstorms over Lake Superior today through
Monday as some shortwave action rides along the ridging overtop us.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...TAP