580
FXUS63 KMQT 301718
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
118 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming up through early next week.

- A more unsettled pattern returns on Friday, continuing into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Shortwave ridging at midlevels is located along the Upper
Mississippi into Ontario, between troughing over the northern
Rockies and Northeastern US. This configuration is ideal for
subsidence over the local area with high pressure centered near the
Door Peninsula. A dry airmass was sampled by the 12Z KGRB/KAPX
RAOBs, measuring PWATs of 0.32 and 0.22 inches, respectively. This
has resulted in a clear and dry day with a quick warm-up from chilly
morning lows. Lake breezes have kicked up and are keeping areas
adjacent to the Great Lakes cooler, although CAMs suggest the
strengthening southerly gradient on the back side of the highs will
limit inland penetration for areas roughly west of Marquette County.

Northern Rockies troughing shifts east a bit tonight, but the lead
shortwave will take a more northeasterly track into the Canadian
Prairies, which will limit the overall eastward push of the better
moisture and forcing. Still, a plume of 1" PWATs is expected to
approach the western UP by 12Z Friday, and convergence along the
weakening low-level cold front will allow some showers to approach
that area late tonight. Meanwhile in the east, it looks like another
good radiational cooling night with a small area of PWATs around
0.20" forecast. Went toward the NBM10 percentile there with lows in
the upper 30s interior east and south, while the continued southerly
gradient and increasing clouds will likely keep lows elevated in the
50s for the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the northern
plains with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. More
shortwave energy moves into the northern plains 00z Sat with the
ridge over the lower Great Lakes. This energy then moves into the
upper Great Lakes on Sat into Sat night. Kept pops confined to the
west on Fri into Fri evening and then with a weak front in the area,
have chance pops in for late Fri night into Sat. Did cut pops back a
bit though and kept them in the chance category. NBM was going
likely which seemed too high given that the system with this front
is heading northeast away from the area and the front is weakening.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
northern Rockies 12z Sun which moves quickly into the upper Great
Lakes 12z Mon. More troughing then moves into the northern Rockies
12z Tue which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. This trough
remains over the area into 12z Thu. Active weather pattern continues
with a sfc front hanging around the area and temperatures will stay
above normal this period. Mon looks to be a widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are likely to continue through the TAF period.
Moisture will increase from the southwest tonight at IWD with cigs
lowering to 4-5kft and a chance of showers late tonight into Friday.
A period of low-level wind shear is expected between roughly 08-13Z
at IWD as southwesterly winds increase to around 40kt at 2kft AGL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure slowly shifts southeast over the Great Lakes Basin
into this weekend. Winds stay at or below 20 knots through the
forecast period with no major systems in the vicinity of Lake
Superior.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...07