Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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319 FXUS63 KMQT 281122 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 722 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers will move southeast through the UP near the stateline today. - Below normal temperatures for the first half of the week, with dry weather returning midweek. - Areas of frost expected Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 217 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 GOES 16 IR base and derived products and surface observations highlight a mix of clouds across the region with overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Upstream, radar returns from the DLH radar show light rain showers exiting the Arrowhead and pressing southeast into western Lake Superior, the Apostles, and northwest Wisconsin. A little further west, another patch of showers is moving through northern Minnesota. GOES 16 Water Vapor and RAP height analysis suggest both of these patches appear to be associated with two weak shortwaves rotating through the base of a closed upper level low. As we progress through the remainder of the overnight period, both will inch closer to the western U.P. The forward most patch may support some sprinkles or light rain here and there beginning in the next hour or so, and then continuing past sunrise. Today, the closed mid-level low in western Ontario will press south into Lake Superior, pushing these shortwaves through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Guidance suggests both will press southeast, with the forward most one supporting showers along the stateline counties. The second shortwave looks to press further south and avoid our region. Further upstream in Minnesota and western Ontario, vort max rotating through the mid-level low, aided with some dinural instability, may kick off showers and maybe some thunderstorms. These may drop into western Lake Superior/Isle Royale this afternoon and evening, but the stable lake and decreasing heating into the evening should limit how far these press south over the lake. A cooler airmass will also rotate into the region through the day. Under northerly and northwesterly flow, this should support highs in the 50s by Lake Superior and low-mid 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge over the Rockies and a trough in the ern half of the U.S. 00z Wed. The ridge moves into the northern plains on Wed and into the upper Great Lakes on Thu. Troughing moves into the northern plains Thu night. Pops will dissipate after sunset over the far south late tonight and then dry weather lasts into Thu night with below normal temperatures. Did keep in frost in the forecast for Wed night as the sky will be clear with calm wind and ideal radiational cooling conditions set up, so widespread frost away from the Great Lakes shorelines continues to look likely. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough across the west half of the U.S. and a ridge across the Mississippi River Valley and a trough on the east coast 12z Fri. The ridge shifts to the ern U.S. 12z Sat. Troughing moves into the Rockies 12z Sun and into the northern plains 12z Mon and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Temperatures remain near to above normal for this forecast period. A weak sfc cold front affects the western cwa on Fri before dissipating on Sat. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in this forecast period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Northwest winds will be 10 to 20 knots today and then be below 20 knots tonight through Thursday as a high pressure ridge moves into the area. The wind continues to be at or below 20 knots into Sat with no strong pressure systems nearby. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JTP MARINE...07