117
FXUS64 KMRX 101519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1119 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Zone package update to remove morning fog. Expect a beautiful day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dense fog in valleys this morning.

2. Dry with lower dewpoints and below normal temperatures this
afternoon and tonight.

Discussion:

Dense fog has developed in the northern Plateau where midlevel
clouds have cleared out. Satellite shows the fog mainly in valleys
where winds are able to drop to calm. Valleys of SW VA and NE TN
may also see fog development in the next few hours. Will cover
this with a SPS.

A post-frontal air mass will build into the area today, with lower
dewpoints in the 50s. Morning clouds will clear out and leave mostly
sunny skies for most of the area. We will have a broad cyclonic flow
in the mid and upper levels, and with cooler temperatures aloft
with this trough, northern sections will have some scattered cloud
cover. Showers with this trough should stay north of our area in
WV. High temps will range from the mid/upper 70s north to
lower/mid 80s south. Lows tonight will be quite pleasant in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler than average Tuesday then back to near normal temperatures
Wednesday. Highs in the low to mid 90`s possible Friday through
Sunday.

2. Strong high pressure is now forecast to build overhead later this
week and should keep us dry much of the week into the weekend.
Uncertainty grows though on the weekend with tropical moisture
brewing south along the Gulf Coast and a cold front to the north.

Discussion:

Tuesday is dry with upper troughing centered just to the east and
upper level ridging to the west. The ridging across the western US
will slowly shift east Wednesday and the upper trough will move off
the east coast. Tuesday will be the last below average day if you
prefer below normal summer temperatures and lower relative
humidities. Highs will be mostly in the 70s valleys and 60s
mountains and only above 80 in the far southern Tennessee Valley
Tuesday afternoon.

As the ridging builds in to the north and east Thursday a strong
surface high pressure will build over the Ohio Valley and then over
the mid Atlantic by midweek. Since the ridging aloft and at the
surface will cover the eastern Tennessee Valley too. There will be
little chance for rainfall. Rising heights will also bring
temperatures up above normal. Mostly dry and hot conditions will
prevail. Thursday and Friday reaching into the lower to mid 90s. The
heat index or feel like temperatures will climb to the mid to upper
90s Friday through Sunday.

The upper low that is expected to develop and move over the Gulf
around Friday into Sunday could still affect the deep south this
weekend. Strong ridging may keep this system and a cold front
expected to move down from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley
Saturday from bringing in any rainfall this weekend. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms during the extended is Sunday however
chances are only 20 percent across the valley and plateau and around
30 percent in the eastern TN mountains and southwest NC. Not much
relief from the heat is expected. The last few days of the forecast
are uncertain because the ridge and surface high may not break down
very fast. The cold front may be the best source of relief from the
heat when it moves in Saturday especially if the moisture from the
Gulf reaches the forecast area later Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Fog at TRI will lift in the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast through this period, with winds at 5-10
kt. With drier air building into the area today, the chance of
fog tonight at TRI appears low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  60  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  57  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  53  76  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...GC