428
FXUS64 KMRX 092322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
722 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

1. Isolated strong storms this afternoon and evening.

2. Cooler and fairer weather on Monday.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms entering the northwest portion
of the forecast area presently will continue to move eastward
through much of the northern two-thirds of the area through
evening, probably with increasing convection during the peak
diurnal heating hours. Isolated strong storms are possible, with
wind and small hail being the primary hazard. A secondary-ish
round of convection may cross the southern third of the area
overnight as the northern fringe of a convective area riding along
and MCV from western TN into the Southeast states tonight.

A cold front is accompanying and helping to trigger these
convective rounds, and it will do a good job of pushing the rain
track to our south. Most of the precip will be exiting SW NC
during the morning hours, and Monday is expected to kick off a
series of fair weather days. Temperatures will be a little cooler
than normal on Monday thanks to cooler air infiltrating in behind
the surface cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler than normal Tuesday then back to normal Wednesday. Low to
mid 90`s possible by the end of the week and weekend.

2. Strong high pressure now forecast to build overhead may actually
keep us dry much of the work week. Uncertainty grows next weekend
with tropical moisture south of us and a cold front to our north.

Discussion:

Monday night starts dry with troughing just to our east and ridging
to our west. The ridging out west will set the stage for conditions
expected during the long term period. Tuesday will be the last
comfortable day if you prefer cooler than normal summer temperatures
and relative humidity. Highs will struggle to reach 80 in parts of
the valley Tuesday afternoon.

Ridging aloft expected to squeeze between two upper lows
as it builds north and east the rest of the week. Strong surface
high pressure will build over the Ohio Valley, eventually moving to
the Mid-Atlantic by midweek. What was thought to be a daily chance
for run of the mill showers and thunderstorms this week, has now
changed completely with the forecast going with mostly dry and hot
conditions. As the surface high moves to our east and heights aloft
expand, temperatures are expected to push above normal Thursday and
into the weekend. This is evident in 850 temps reaching or exceeding
20 deg C. In other words, low to mid 90`s possible during this time.
The heat index or feel like temperatures, could possibly reach the
mid to upper 90`s during the peak heating timeframe.

The upper low that will develop and move over the Gulf is still in
play across the south. Strong ridging may block both that system and
a cold front expected to develop over the upper US from impacting us
the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms try to move in from
both directions (systems) this weekend, but it`s still too early to
know if we will actually see a relief from likely dry weather this
week. Highly dependent on if the ridge and surface high can be
broken down. The cold front, however, will move overhead regardless
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A frontal boundary will move slowly south across the area this
evening. A few showers will remain possible at all TAF sites with
thunder possible at CHA.

Besides the convection a good deal of high/mid level clouds
overnight with scattered to broken 5-6kft as well. Overall, VFR
conditions expected. Low confidence of fog development at TRI.

For Monday, VFR but expect some scattered to broken 8-10kft cloud
cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  84  60  83 /  30   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  80  57  79 /  30   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  80  56  80 /  20   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  77  53  77 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...DH