216
FXUS64 KMRX 061858
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Message:

1) Isolated storms continue this evening before dissipating tonight.

2) Cooler and drier weather moves in overnight.

Discussion:

Currently a few showers moving through the southern Appalachians,
expect the coverage of storms to remain fairly isolated, but diurnal
heating means we should begin to see some of these storms produce
lightning this afternoon/evening. Frontal boundary is continuing to
slowly make its way through the Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee
Valley. Until this front finally moves through later today we`ll
continue to see shower and thunderstorm chances. Brief heavy
downpours will be the main threat with storms this afternoon and
evening.

Expect clouds to continue to slowly clear out through the rest of
the afternoon and evening leading to mostly clear conditions
overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop several degrees
cooler than last nights lows. These colder temperatures combined
with some recent rainfall could produce some patchy fog overnight in
areas that received rain over the past few days. Heading into
tomorrow it should be a pleasant day with temperatures just below
seasonal normals and dew point values only in the 50s which will
make it feel less muggy out there.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday.

2. Monday through the rest of the extended trending drier.

Discussion:

Not much has changed significantly since this morning for the
extended. Saturday looks to be dry and pleasantly warm, a great day
to be outside. Sunday the rain chances are returning as a front
slogs its way through. GFS Ensemble shows a 50% of 500 CAPE from
Knoxville south to Chattanooga on Sunday afternoon, which should be
enough to fuel some thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Don`t really see anything significant with this front, the better
instability is south of us, and while shear will be present the
overall setup doesn`t lend itself well to severe weather. The larger
parent trough in association with the front will slowly pivot its
axis through the Appalachian Mountains Sunday through Monday. This
will help keep temperatures at least somewhat muted relative to
climatology with clouds and the lower heights of the trough. Had
been hoping those muted temperatures would continue, but the Euro
and the ensembles bring a quicker return to warm June weather into
the middle part of next week with higher heights. NBM is still a
little aggressive on POPs Monday and onwards, so dampened it a bit.
There`s ongoing uncertainty in where an upper low feature in the
north central US and southern Canada will move, but currently the
wetter GFS solution seems to be an outlier vs the drier Euro and the
ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be in the southern
Appalachian region through the evening hours, but low confidence
on if/when an individual storm impacts an airport. Once the front
passes through expect clear skies to prevail. Outside of any
storms, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  84  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  80  58  83 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  81  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  77  53  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...