078
FXUS65 KMSO 211832
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...Frost potential will be the primary impact tonight
into Sunday morning across the lower valleys of western Montana
and higher valleys of north-central Idaho. Otherwise, westerly
flow will lead to tranquil conditions and seasonable daytime
temperatures this weekend. A weak disturbance along the Canadian
border will bring an increase in mid-level clouds on Sunday
afternoon and evening. There is a chance of a few light showers,
although showers will be mainly confined to northwest Montana. A
mix of clouds and sunshine will continue Monday and Tuesday.
Westerly breezes will pick up on Sunday and Monday afternoons as
well with gusts of 15-25 mph. Temperatures will also warm to
10-15 degrees above normal (80s for many valleys) by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The majority of ensemble clusters (about 70%) show a trough
coming onto the Pacific Northwest coast late Wednesday into
Thursday. This would open up the potential for showers and a few
thunderstorms, and eventually cooler temperatures. There is also a
30-50% probability of wind gusts over 30 mph for western Montana
valleys, 10-20% chance across north-central Idaho. The other
scenario from about 30% of clusters, would support lower shower
chances, less wind, and warmer temperatures as ridging tries to
hold on.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue into Sunday under a westerly
flow. A weak disturbance along the Canadian border will bring an
increase in mid-level clouds on Sunday afternoon and evening.
There is a chance of a few light showers, although showers will be
mainly confined to northwest Montana. Westerly breezes will pick
up on Sunday afternoon as well with gusts of 15-20 kts.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower
     Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...None.
&&

$$