730
FXUS65 KMSO 181929
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
129 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure will remain over the
Northern Rockies through the rest of the day. Scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop
and migrate eastward over north-central Idaho and western Montana
while under the trough. Brief heavy rainfall and occasional
lightning will be the main threats from the convective activity.

Clearing skies and light winds tonight into Wednesday morning
will allow for areas of frost, mainly from the Mission Valley,
south to Lemhi County. Currently, there is a 40-50% probability
temperatures could reach 36 degrees or colder for these locations
by tomorrow morning. Areas further east (i.e Seeley Lake, Ovando,
Anaconda and Butte) are likely to reach freezing, though this
isn`t out of the climatological norm for this time of the year.

There is high consensus (near 100%) of a warming and drying trend
Wednesday through Friday under southwest flow. There is a 20-30%
chance of showers or thunderstorms each day, focused mainly along
the Divide. This is followed by a brief ridge over the weekend.
Under the ridge, daytime temperatures peak about 15 degrees above
normal (upper 80s western Montana valleys, low/mid 90s for north-
central Idaho).

High confidence remains with the brief ridge of high pressure
beginning to flatten out early next week, leading to an increase
in daily breezes and seasonable temperatures. Some ensemble
members (20%), are showing a decent southwesterly flow that would
allow for scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and
evening hours.


&&

.AVIATION...An upper level trough remains over the region through this
evening, leading to periodic showers. Occasional lowered ceilings
and visibility reductions will occur with precipitation episodes.
Showers greatly diminish after sunset as instability and
widespread forcing subsides. Depending on the amount of clearing
overnight, frost will be a concern tonight into Wednesday morning
across portions of west central Montana and along the Continental
Divide. A much quieter weather day, with moderating temperatures
and drier conditions, is then expected for the rest of Wednesday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$