747
FXUS65 KMSO 232014
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
214 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...As the main closed low departs toward the Dakotas,
northwest flow will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, mainly across northwest Montana. Showery
conditions persist in northwest Montana overnight into Friday
morning. Snow levels will be above 6000 feet thus snow
accumulations will remain in the mountains. Partial clearing may
occur from I-90 southward on Friday morning, protect any sensitive
vegetation as low temperatures will be near freezing.

Instability showers and a few thunderstorms pop up Friday afternoon
and evening. Watch for gusty winds of 20-30 mph near
showers/storms. High temperatures will rebound to seasonable
levels with 60s for lower valleys of western Montana/70s in lower
elevations of north-central Idaho.

The next system with the potential for widespread precipitation arrives
Saturday morning exiting by early Sunday. About 80% of ensemble
clusters support a closed low near the Northern Rockies but there
is considerable disagreement on the track. Also, the Saturday
system appears slightly warmer and less organized compared to the
most recent impactful closed low. Current snow levels are
projected at 5000-6000 feet but if the closed low becomes well
developed, these will most certainly be lower just northwest of
the track of the low. Lower snow levels would present a potential
for pass level road impacts during the overnight/morning hours.

A general warming and drying trend is seen Sunday into early next
week. Highs return to above normal levels with valleys highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Southwest flow becomes well
established late Tuesday which is a decent set up for scattered
thunderstorms, perhaps a few strong ones.


&&

.AVIATION...As the main closed low departs toward the Dakotas,
northwest flow will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, mainly across northwest
Montana. Showery conditions with occasional visibility and ceiling
reductions continue tonight into Friday morning around KGPI.
Additional instability showers and a few thunderstorms pop up
again on Friday afternoon. Winds will be relatively light overall
but gusts of 15-25 kts will occur near showers/storms.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$