Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
183 FXUS65 KMSO 191933 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 133 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .DISCUSSION...The Northern Rockies will transition into a southwesterly flow pattern beginning today, as the trough of low pressure lifts out of the region. This flow pattern will open the door for afternoon and evening showers, with isolated thunderstorms. Brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard from today`s convection. Clearing skies and light winds overnight will allow for patchy fog, primarily in the valleys in northwest Montana. A transitory shortwave ridge of high pressure will traverse the Northern Rockies over the weekend, that will allow for afternoon temperatures to run around 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year, with mid/upper 80s in western Montana valleys, and low/mid 90s for north-central Idaho. High confidence (80% probability) remains with the brief ridge of high pressure beginning to flatten out early next week, leading to an increase in daily breezes and a return to seasonable temperatures. Model clusters are struggling with the details for the middle and later part of next week (26th-28th). A general consensus supports southwest flow with slightly above normal temperatures, breezy afternoons and an occasional risk for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...Southwest flow today has started a warming and drying trend. The southwest flow combined with the recent moisture we`ve had is causing some showers and thunderstorms today. However, subsidence behind the trough exiting the region will limit updraft strength and intensity today only allowing general thunderstorms with moderate rain and small hail this afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$