268
FXUS65 KMSO 190803
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
203 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.DISCUSSION...The upper trough exits and is replaced by southwest
flow later today leading to warmer and drier weather through this
weekend. Patchy valley fog is likely this morning due to all the
recent rainfall and clearing skies. Otherwise, considerable
sunshine is anticipated the next few days. There will be enough
instability for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in
northwest Montana and along the Divide this afternoon, watch for
brief heavy rain and small hail. This shower activity will
quickly diminish by sunset. A similar convective setup is expected
each day into the weekend with Friday showing the most shower coverage.

Brief ridging over the weekend brings the warmest temperatures of
the week. Daytime temperatures peak about 15 degrees above normal
(mid to upper 80s western Montana valleys, low/mid 90s for north-
central Idaho).

High confidence (70% probability) remains with the brief ridge of
high pressure beginning to flatten out early next week, leading
to an increase in daily breezes and a return to seasonable
temperatures. Model clusters are struggling with the details for
the middle and later part of next week (26th-28th). A general
consensus supports southwest flow with slightly above normal
temperatures, breezy afternoons and an occasional risk for
thunderstorms.


&&

.AVIATION...The upper trough exits and is replaced by southwest
flow later today leading to warmer and drier weather through the
end of the week. Patchy valley fog is likely this morning due to
all the recent rainfall and clearing skies. Otherwise VFR
conditions will be common with light diurnal winds. There will be
enough instability for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
in northwest Montana and along the Divide this afternoon, watch
for brief heavy rain and small hail. This convective activity
will quickly diminish by sunset.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$