447
FXUS65 KMSO 271837
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1237 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...An upper level low moving along the Canadian border
is causing another round of thunderstorms across northwest Montana
this afternoon. Due to a cooler air mass in place because of the
cold frontal passage yesterday, it won`t get unstable enough to
support severe thunderstorms, though gusty winds of 40 mph and
small hail are likely with these storms.

Tomorrow, a ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest setting up
northwest flow and more showers. Some wrap around moisture from
the exiting low will also mix into the northwest flow, enhancing
showers across northwest Montana and west central Montana north of
Interstate-90.

Then Saturday, the ridge moves over the northern Rockies and gives
the region a brief respite from the frequent showers and
thunderstorms of late.

By Sunday, the ridge moves on and the region is under southwest
flow followed by another round of thunderstorms. Currently, it
looks like these will be wet thunderstorms and will again lack the
instability to produce severe weather.

Ensembles show a ridge building next week to start July off with
near average temperatures. They also show the probability of
precipitation remaining in the 15 to 50 percent range across
western Montana, and only the higher elevations of central Idaho
having a 15-20 percent chance of precipitation. This is pretty
similar to climatology, with just occasional thunderstorms moving
through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level circulation moving through northwest
Montana is causing some afternoon convection again today. Storms
will mainly impact terminal KGPI and should be done by 27/06Z.
Some wrap around moisture and instability from the low will cause
another round of showers tomorrow reaching as far south as
terminal KMSO.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$