847
FXUS65 KMSO 231917 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
117 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...Ridging builds in with warm and dry weather through
much of Wednesday. There will be a mix of clouds and sunshine with
typical afternoon breezes of 15-20 mph. High temperatures will be
10-15 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching near
daily records on Wednesday.

The ridge axis is pushed eastward later Wednesday as a Pacific
trough comes onshore. One noticeable impact will be gusty winds
each afternoon/evening Wednesday through Friday. There is a
45-55% chance of gusts over 30 mph in western Montana valleys,
around 20% for lower elevations of north-central Idaho. Watch for
choppy conditions on area lakes. Also, increased instability and
shear Wednesday late afternoon and evening will lead to a few
thunderstorms from north-central Idaho into northwest Montana. A
storm or two will be capable of gusty outflow winds and hail. A
chance of showers will continue into Thursday morning, especially
from I-90 northward. Daytime temperatures will gradually cool back
to more seasonable values (70s in the valleys) by the end of the
week.

There is considerable uncertainty late next weekend with about
35% of ensemble clusters dropping a cool trough into the Northern
Rockies. This pattern is a decent set up for snow in the mountains
along the Divide, followed by temperatures near freezing for
western Montana valleys. However, the majority of models (65%) are
not as deep with the trough, thus less precipitation and milder
temperatures.




&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue into Tuesday as ridging builds
in. Afternoon breezes of 15-20 kts will diminish by sunset.







&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$