956
FXUS66 KMTR 190630
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1130 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Isolated to scattered rain showers continue into this evening,
tapering off from north to south gradually through Thursday
afternoon. A warming trend is on tap for by this upcoming weekend
and into early next week with temperatures rebounding to near
seasonal averages.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A low pressure system continues to churn offshore with just a
rogue rain shower over the southernmost coastal waters to show for
it. No lightning strikes were recorded within the CWA today. The
forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper level low remains off of the North Bay coast at this hour
and will continue to drop southward throughout the day before moving
onshore over the Central Coast tonight/tomorrow. As such, much of
the rainfall from this system will remain light and some locations
may not see any rainfall at all! There remains a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the North Bay this afternoon before the
thunderstorm threat focuses on the southern portion of the Central
Coast on Thursday. The threat generally remains less than 15%
however, so confidence of thunderstorm development remains low.

Wrap around moisture from the system as it pushes inland will result
in the continued rain chances (and low end thunderstorm chances) into
tomorrow over the Central Coast but the North Bay and Greater San
Francisco Bay Area are expected to be dry beyond late this evening.
Any thunderstorms that to develop will have the potential to produce
isolated, brief downpours. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will
be 5-15 degrees below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Friday afternoon will still be below normal across the region as the
upper level trough begins to push further inland. The warm-up
doesn`t begin until Saturday with near to slightly below normal
temperatures. Sunday and into early next week is when temperatures
are expected to be slightly above average as high pressure from the
eastern Pacific begins to build inland. The marine layer also looks
to return as a result with night and morning low clouds likely into
next week. Low clouds will the retreat to the coast by the afternoon
each day throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late
morning with some light rain lingering around the Monterey Bay and
Central Coast. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as
well as the Monterey Bay and STS. Winds stay light to moderate
through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into
Thursday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast.
Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into
the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves inland slightly early Tuesday
evening, affecting both bays with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming
widespread later that night.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs build into the late night and last into
the late morning with  light to moderate winds. Winds increase into
and become moderate in the mid afternoon. Winds will reduce slightly
into Thursday evening and MVFR CIGs return in the late evening and
early night.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Lingering showers along with MVFR/IFR CIGs
last through most of the thing. CIGs lower into early Thursday with
mist and drizzle affecting the area. CIGs scatter and winds become
more moderate into Thursday afternoon. IFR CIGs return  Thursdsay
evening as winds reduce.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to
become moderate to fresh over the outer waters overnight. Seas
will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters
overnight. There`s up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms through
tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall,
locally gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Sarment

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