404
FXUS66 KMTR 161903
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Rain showers will taper off from north to south through this evening
with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages through late
week. Another system enters the picture Wednesday with additional
rain chances, however rainfall amounts will be light. Warming into
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated rain showers continue over the region early this afternoon
and are expected to diminish in coverage while shifting southward
through this evening. Tonight, coastal drizzle will be possible as
moist conditions persist and troughing lingers over the region.
Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40`s (in the coldest
interior spots) to mid 50`s for much of the region.

Tomorrow, temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees below average.
Outside coastal drizzle in the morning, tomorrow will be dry with
partial clearing of sky conditions through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be
very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still
looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning,
but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we
saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder
with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but
with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there
is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into
Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower
side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really
isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap
going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around
seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some
discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a
possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Widespread mid-level cloud cover with scattered MVFR ceilings
continue throughout the region. Light rain showers continue over the
Central Coast, but are expected to diminish within the next several
hours. Otherwise the terminals remain dry, with breezy northwest
winds this afternoon and evening. Some clearing is expected in the
North Bay down to the Bay Area terminals, with the Central coast
remaining socked into MVFR ceilings all day today through the end of
the TAF period. Extensive inland stratus develops overnight,
assisted by the moist lower levels as a result of the light rain.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR cloud cover expected to lift to a mid-level
ceiling through the morning. Winds will be breezy from the west-
northwest with gusts of 15-20 knots in the afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings return late tonight, with clearing to VFR late Tuesday
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Light rain showers continue for another
couple of hours. MVFR to mid-level overcast cloud cover through the
TAF period, and potentially through Tuesday after the TAF period
ends, especially at MRY. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease today to become
fresh breezes. Seas continue to build through the day today,
becoming rough in the NW waters. There is a bit of a break on
Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of strong NW
winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters. Overall it
will be a challenging week for smaller craft.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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