200
FXUS66 KMTR 161059
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
359 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Slight rain chances continue early this morning. Gradually
clearing with cooler temps today. Another system enters the
picture Wednesday with additional rain chances. Warming into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Winds are slowly decreasing but still gusty this morning as the
core of the upper low moves over. Radar showing some isolated
shower activity well offshore, but nothing overly exciting. We are
expecting some of that activity to migrate eastward through the
morning, potentially impacting the Bay Area and points southward
by late morning to mid day. Still not expecting anything to write
home about, but some lucky areas along the SF Peninsula, eastern
Santa Clara Co, and some high terrain areas around Monterey Bay
could see up to a tenth of an inch or so. As one of my old
colleagues would say, "that`s not nothin!" Winds will continue to
diminish throughout the morning, as will shower activity by the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will be much cooler today for areas
south of the Bay Area where cloud cover will linger a little
longer. Temps in the North Bay will still be on the cooler side
for the time of year, but relatively close to yesterday thanks to
earlier sky clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be
very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still
looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning,
but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we
saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder
with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but
with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there
is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into
Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower
side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really
isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap
going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around
seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some
discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a
possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 358 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Wind gusts have greatly diminished across the region, with most
terminals reporting winds westerly and below 10 knots, with the
exception of KSFO and KOAK. Low clouds continue to bring MVFR
conditions to many terminals this morning, and chances of light rain
persist. While Monterey Bay terminals are expected to remain MVFR
throughout the TAF period, the majority of terminals will see
clearing to VFR towards the 17-18Z window. Westerly breezy winds
will resume in the afternoon today, and will diminish to become
light into the evening. Stratus returns for most terminals in the
late night bringing MVFR CIGs once more.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty winds persist this morning, but have
decreased to around 25-30 knots. Gusts are expected to continue to
decrease, with winds eventually receding enough in the morning to
become just breezy rather than strong. Current MVFR CIGs are
expected to clear towards the late morning to allow for a return of
VFR conditions. Stratus returns in the early morning of Tuesday
bringing MVFR CIGs once more.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds are likely to filter into the SF
Bay overnight bringing MVFR CIGs.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs persist through the TAF period.
Light rain showers have just entered the vicinity, with rain chances
persisting through the late morning today. Any rainfall is expected
to be light. Winds westerly around 10 knots in the afternoon and
evening today.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Winds have begun to decrease, though are still strong and out of
the northwest across much of the waters. Winds will gradually
decrease today to become fresh. Seas will continue to build
through the day today, becoming rough in the NW waters. There is
a bit of a break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the
return of strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal
waters. Overall it will be a challenging week for smaller craft.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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