Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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404 FXUS66 KMTR 161903 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Rain showers will taper off from north to south through this evening with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages through late week. Another system enters the picture Wednesday with additional rain chances, however rainfall amounts will be light. Warming into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Isolated rain showers continue over the region early this afternoon and are expected to diminish in coverage while shifting southward through this evening. Tonight, coastal drizzle will be possible as moist conditions persist and troughing lingers over the region. Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40`s (in the coldest interior spots) to mid 50`s for much of the region. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees below average. Outside coastal drizzle in the morning, tomorrow will be dry with partial clearing of sky conditions through the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning, but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Widespread mid-level cloud cover with scattered MVFR ceilings continue throughout the region. Light rain showers continue over the Central Coast, but are expected to diminish within the next several hours. Otherwise the terminals remain dry, with breezy northwest winds this afternoon and evening. Some clearing is expected in the North Bay down to the Bay Area terminals, with the Central coast remaining socked into MVFR ceilings all day today through the end of the TAF period. Extensive inland stratus develops overnight, assisted by the moist lower levels as a result of the light rain. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR cloud cover expected to lift to a mid-level ceiling through the morning. Winds will be breezy from the west- northwest with gusts of 15-20 knots in the afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings return late tonight, with clearing to VFR late Tuesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Light rain showers continue for another couple of hours. MVFR to mid-level overcast cloud cover through the TAF period, and potentially through Tuesday after the TAF period ends, especially at MRY. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease today to become fresh breezes. Seas continue to build through the day today, becoming rough in the NW waters. There is a bit of a break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters. Overall it will be a challenging week for smaller craft. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea