326
FXUS66 KMTR 201051
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
351 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Warmer temperatures today mark the beginning of a steady warming
trend that will persist through the weekend into the beginning of
next week. Moderate heat risk conditions are still possible for many
interior locations Monday and Tuesday, but forecast trend has been
slightly cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Low stratus clouds have filled in along the coastline and interior
gaps and valleys overnight and will begin to erode by mid/late
morning except along the immediate coastline, especially Monterey
Bay, where the marine boundary layer is reestablished with light
onshore flow throughout the day. Gradual but steady H50 height
increases in the wake of the upper low moving inland over SOCAL this
afternoon will lift temperatures up about 5 degrees over inland
locations from yesterdays high temperatures. High pressure continues
to build offshore tomorrow, driving temperatures warmer on Saturday
to around normal values for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend into the
beginning of next week. The forecasted max temperatures have trended
slightly cooler but moderate heat risk across many inland locations
Monday and Tuesday may still lead to the need for a Heat Advisory
for those two days. There is poor consensus for the evolution of the
synoptic pattern west of the Rockies for the first half of next
week, as a weak upper level low develops off the coast of SOCAL.
Nonetheless, temperatures moderate somewhat for the second half of
next week from Monday and Tuesdays peak. We appear to remain dry
through the extended forecast after some welcomed rainfall over
southern Monterey County yesterday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ moving inland on onshore winds
tonight and Friday morning, MVFR-VFR farthest inland. Stratus and
fog mixing out back to near the coast and bays by late Friday morning
and afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows stratus moving inland, at SFO tempo
IFR 06z-10z then IFR prevailing to 16z, MVFR to 1730z Friday. West
to southwest wind 5 to 15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR-IFR due to stratus and fog tonight
and Friday morning, conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Friday
morning and afternoon. Onshore winds mainly 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1037 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, with fresh gusts
over the outer waters through Monday. Seas will be moderate,
continuing to build and remain rough in the outer waters through
Monday. Winds decrease and seas abate Tuesday through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Kennedy

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea