Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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847 FXUS66 KMTR 210538 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1038 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1019 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Gorgeous day across the interior today with temps on the rise. Warming trend peaks Saturday...Heat Advisory in effect for inland areas Saturday with moderate HeatRisk. Temps cool Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The short term forecast is in good shape with no real changes needed. The only thing we`ll need to be mindful of tonight, sensible weather wise is the potential for more widespread fog. At this time, the boundary layer appears to be a bit too turbulent for widespread dense fog (and thus more in the way of low stratus), but trends will be monitored. The main weather headline will be the above normal heat over the next couple of days. With the marine layer being rather compressed, we`ll see temperatures climb quickly on Friday and into Saturday...particularly farther away from the coast. High temperatures on Friday across the interior will climb into the mid to upper 90s with a few locations across San Benito, Monterey, and far northern Sonoma county topping 100 degrees. Saturday will be the hottest day with highs climbing up toward 105. Be sure you`re practicing your heat safety and NEVER leave children or pets unattended in vehicles! In addition, with the hot conditions, grasses will still remain receptive to burning as we`ve seen across the area over the last few weeks. Do your part and avoid activities that could spark a wildfire. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1115 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 No major change in the forecast today. Ample sun for areas away from the coast and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer today compared to yesterday. Some high clouds across northern portions of the CWA as some residual upper level moisture swings through associated with the decaying trough. By Friday afternoon, 500 mb heights rise rapidly as the trough fully decays and the ridge sets in. This will likely result in the most drastic day-to-day temperature change of the week with high temps Friday generally 5-10 degrees warmer than today. Marine layer compression due to large scale subsidence into the weekend will also result in clearer conditions for coastal areas this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1115 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of this short heat event with another 4-7 degree increase from Friday`s temps. Generally looking like the lower 100s for far inland areas, a spread in the 90s for most of the North Bay, South Bay, and interior valleys around Monterey Bay, and the 60s to mid 70s for coastal areas. A Heat Advisory is in effect Saturday for interior areas of the North Bay, East and South Bay (including San Jose), and the interior Central Coast. HeatRisk will be in the "moderate" category for these areas, which means that the heat will affect most individuals sensitive to heat...especially those without effective cooling or adequate hydration. You may think you`re used to the heat, but it`s still relatively early in the season and your body may think otherwise. Take care of yourself and others. There is some degree of relief noted in overnight lows, especially at elevations where most people live. Coastal and Bay Area locations will see lows in the 50s, while further inland places will be in the lower 60s. Locations above about 2000 feet may struggle to cool lower than the low 70s overnight Friday and Saturday nights. A notable cool down by about 8-10 degrees will take place Sunday, but warmer weather persists through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Stratus has fully rebuild along the coast and has moved inland creating a mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. Most terminals will see low cigs overnight, except KLVK where some scattered low clouds will surround the terminal. Expect VFR to return Friday morning with a return of stratus late Friday evening along the coast but only KMRY will see possible low cigs. Winds will be mostly onshore except North Bay terminals where winds will be S/SE. Moderate winds overnight will build by Friday afternoon with possible gusty winds through coastal gaps and passes. Vicinity of SFO...IFR until the early morning where VFR will return. Models hint at MVFR ceilings returning Friday night, but with the ridging pattern, there is a higher chance for VFR will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become gusty and breezy Friday afternoon, before returning to light Friday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR conditions as stratus is socked in. Expect conditions to improve near 17-18Z. KMRY IFR/MVFR conditions may linger a bit longer, but higher confidence between 18-19Z. Expect low ceilings to return for KMRY Friday night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 905 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds persist tonight and prevail into the weekend, with strong gusty winds over the northern outer waters. These stronger gusts may pose hazardous for small craft. Significant wave heights of 6-8 feet will persist until the end of the week, then build back up to 10-12 feet over the outer waters for the weekend, when northwest winds increase once again over much of the waters. Light southerly swell continues to move through the waters today, accompanied by moderate NW swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ504-510- 513>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea