245
FXUS66 KMTR 052102
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
202 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot again today as the heatwave peaks. A couple of degrees cooler
Thursday, followed by further cooling Friday. Above average
temperatures hang around through the weekend. Another potential
hot period mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Temperature today running pretty well in line with the forecast.
Based off of temperatures yesterday, kept today`s forecast nudged
toward the 90th percentile. Many locations will see highs today
very similar to yesterday, a few degrees higher for areas south of
the SF Bay Area. The only exception would be the immediate
coastline where onshore flow is battling to keep the shallow
marine layer intact. These areas are running a couple of degrees
cooler. By Thursday, a shortwave trough around the periphery of a
deep upper low in the Gulf of Alaska traverses through the West
Coast, deepening the marine layer a bit and slightly enhancing the
onshore flow. This will cool temperatures further for most
locations, aside from the far inland spots like interior Napa, far
eastern Alameda and Contra Costa, and interior Monterey/San
Benito.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The Heat Advisory expires at midnight Thursday night with further
deepening of the marine layer and additional cooling expected by
Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures persist
through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the pattern
over the west. However, persistent onshore flow and a weak trough
over the eastern Pacific should moderate our temps enough to keep
them a bit lower into early next week. The middle of next week
looks like our next potentially impactful warm period as the ridge
builds once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with not a cloud in the sky. Winds
will remain onshore through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in
VFR through the TAF period. The increase in onshore flow will result
in higher relative humidities and thus lower dew point depressions.
Confidence is not high on if the terminals will see any reduction in
flight category through the TAF period; however, with the pattern
being dominated by high pressure, the most likely outcome would be
LIFR conditions in the early-to-mid morning hours with greater
confidence of occurrence at terminals immediately adjacent to the
coast.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with easterly flow. Moderate
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will transition to
become westerly and gusty this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots
to be expected. Winds will diminish overnight and remain westerly
through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at
both terminals. Winds will prevail out of the west for MRY and out
of the northwest for SNS. Low to moderate confidence on VFR through
the TAF period at both terminals with higher confidence in SNS than
MRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will allow
for  moderate to strong northwesterly breezes to prevail through
the  period. Significant wave heights will continue to build to 10
to 15  feet today with an abating trend set for Thursday through
Saturday  before significant wave heights build again towards the
end of the  period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 415 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Thursday evening.

A moderate-rough NW swell will arrive today and create large
breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves. Breaking
waves will reach as high as 15 ft, especially along steep beaches.
Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people
in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced
swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20
minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will
lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where
lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back
on the ocean!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for
June 5th:

Station             June 5th

Santa Rosa         102 in 1926
Kentfield          102 in 1926
Napa               105 in 1903
Richmond            86 in 1983
Livermore          104 in 1926
San Francisco       95 in 1883
SFO Airport         89 in 1972
Redwood City        97 in 2002, 1972
Half Moon Bay       74 in 1958
Oakland downtown    87 in 2002
San Jose           100 in 1926
Salinas Airport     87 in 1949
King City          105 in 1926

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Heat Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-
     506-510-512>516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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