Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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851 FXUS66 KMTR 161542 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Slight rain chances continue early this morning. Gradually clearing with cooler temps today. Another system enters the picture Wednesday with additional rain chances. Warming into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Isolated rain showers persist over the region this morning, mainly from the East Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains and across the Central Coast. Look for continued showers to persist and shift southward throughout the day before diminishing in coverage by this evening. Rainfall amounts generally range from 0.01-0.10". Forecast remains on track this morning with no updates anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Winds are slowly decreasing but still gusty this morning as the core of the upper low moves over. Radar showing some isolated shower activity well offshore, but nothing overly exciting. We are expecting some of that activity to migrate eastward through the morning, potentially impacting the Bay Area and points southward by late morning to mid day. Still not expecting anything to write home about, but some lucky areas along the SF Peninsula, eastern Santa Clara Co, and some high terrain areas around Monterey Bay could see up to a tenth of an inch or so. As one of my old colleagues would say, "that`s not nothin!" Winds will continue to diminish throughout the morning, as will shower activity by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be much cooler today for areas south of the Bay Area where cloud cover will linger a little longer. Temps in the North Bay will still be on the cooler side for the time of year, but relatively close to yesterday thanks to earlier sky clearing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning, but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 358 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Wind gusts have greatly diminished across the region, with most terminals reporting winds westerly and below 10 knots, with the exception of KSFO and KOAK. Low clouds continue to bring MVFR conditions to many terminals this morning, and chances of light rain persist. While Monterey Bay terminals are expected to remain MVFR throughout the TAF period, the majority of terminals will see clearing to VFR towards the 17-18Z window. Westerly breezy winds will resume in the afternoon today, and will diminish to become light into the evening. Stratus returns for most terminals in the late night bringing MVFR CIGs once more. Vicinity of SFO...Gusty winds persist this morning, but have decreased to around 25-30 knots. Gusts are expected to continue to decrease, with winds eventually receding enough in the morning to become just breezy rather than strong. Current MVFR CIGs are expected to clear towards the late morning to allow for a return of VFR conditions. Stratus returns in the early morning of Tuesday bringing MVFR CIGs once more. SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds are likely to filter into the SF Bay overnight bringing MVFR CIGs. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs persist through the TAF period. Light rain showers have just entered the vicinity, with rain chances persisting through the late morning today. Any rainfall is expected to be light. Winds westerly around 10 knots in the afternoon and evening today. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease today to become fresh breezes. Seas continue to build through the day today, becoming rough in the NW waters. There is a bit of a break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters. Overall it will be a challenging week for smaller craft. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...RGass SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...AC MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea