626
FXUS66 KMTR 132326
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
426 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Quiet through the rest of the week with slight warm up on Friday
across the interior. Near normal temperatures by the weekend.
Increasing confidence for high wind potential and increased fire
danger Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Zonal flow has caused some rinse and repeat for weather conditions
today, compared to yesterday. Most of the clouds have eroded back to
the coast while areas in Monterey Bay and Salinas, still remain
pretty socked in with some low clouds and is anticipated to remain
so for the rest of the day. Overnight temperatures will also be
similar to last night but a few areas in the North Bay will see 1-3
degrees warmer with minimum temperatures in the 50s, while the
remaining of the region will see upper 40s to mid 50s. As a weak
ridge moves over the region tomorrow, expect max temperatures to
become warmer compared to today with inland areas seeing mid 80s to
low 90s. Coastline remains pretty consistent with low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

As we move into the weekend, a deep low pressure system pattern dips
down into our area bringing some cooler temperatures and some
increased winds. Max temperatures inland will reach up to mid to
high 80s Saturday, with temperatures beginning to dropping a few
degrees every day with Sunday and Monday seeing temperatures in the
low 80s and 70s. The coast will remain in the high 50 to 60s through
the weekend into the first half of next week. Overnight lows
generally will be in the 50s through most of the area. Winds will
also increase as the trough deepens into our area causing some gusty
winds throughout our region, with the highest possible winds speeds
between 30-40 mph occuring over the waters, coastal area, valleys
and inland coastal gaps.

Although we will have some moisture recovery overnight through the
weekend, there is some fire concerns Sunday into Monday, as there
have been recent drying of fine fuels and grasses. We are expecting
overall onshore winds associated with this low pressure system, but
depending on the magnitude and positioning of the trough, offshore
winds are not completely off the table. This will dry fuels out even
further. With the ensemble members showing some differences in
the magnitude of the trough, we are able to explore a best case
and worse case scenario for elevated fire concerns. The best case,
is represented by the European and GFS ensembles where it
supports a deepening of the trough, which will bring some moist
air, cooler temperatures, and stronger onshore winds, which will
alleviate some fire concerns. The worst case scenario would be if
the trough becomes weak or a short wave ridging develops. This
will bring the possibility of offshore winds, drier conditions,
and warmer temperatures, which will increase some fire weather
concerns. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the trough as it
gets closer to our region to update our forecast, as well as our
messaging.

As we move into the middle of the week, long-range models show a
possible ridging or weakening of the trough that will bring possible
warmer temperatures. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

MVFR-IFR stratus continues at the immediate coast and into the
Monterey Bay region. Breezy onshore winds will continue into the
evening with gusts up to 20-25 knots. With a compressing marine
layer overnight, not expecting stratus intrusion overnight to be as
extensive as last night. Current thinking has ceilings limited to
the northern SF Bay and the Monterey Bay regions. For the North Bay
terminals and LVK, low confidence in ceilings despite model output
putting some low clouds in the area. Ceilings will mix out through
Friday morning with breezy and gusty west winds resume in the
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... Breezy west winds with gusts up to around 20
knots continue through the evening. Moderate confidence that MVFR
stratus comes over the terminal tonight, with more confidence of
impacts at OAK. Stratus mixes out on Friday morning, with gusty west-
northwest winds returning to the terminal in the afternoon. Current
forecast calls for gusts up to around 30 knots, will monitor for
potential for gusts above 35 knots on Friday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Lower confidence for stratus impacts
along the approach path. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR ceilings continue through Friday
morning, with some IFR and LIFR possible overnight. Breezy and gusty
onshore winds gusting to 20 knots continue through the evening, when
winds diminish. Model output is showing gradual clearing of stratus
through Friday morning, with lower confidence in the clearing time
at MRY. Breezy and gusty onshore winds return to the region on
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue over the northern
waters through the end of the week with gale force gusts expected
by Friday afternoon and evening. Late Friday into Saturday,
strong north to northwesterly winds will spread southwards over
much of the coastal waters with widespread gale force winds
anticipated. Gale watches have been issued from Friday evening
through at least mid-day Saturday for gusts between 35 to 40
knots across the majority of the coastal waters. Significant wave
heights up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters and 10 to
14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend. Hazardous
to dangerous conditions for small crafts will continue through the
weekend and into the early work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist through
the weekend into the beginning of next week across our area. A
lack of recent rainfall amid warmer and drier conditions has dried
fuels, especially grasses. Although temperatures have moderated
back down to around normal after the recent heat, a relatively dry
airmass associated with an upper level Pacific trough will result
in gusty surface winds mixing to the surface across our inland
locations and higher terrain. Min RH values for locations
susceptible to potential wild fires will generally be between 10
to 30 percent Friday through Monday, and possible beyond. The
public should be discouraged from activities that may spark a
wildfire, especially weekend campers with campfires.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Kennedy

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea