Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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323 FXUS66 KMTR 280708 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1208 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Inland areas were generally at seasonal averages this afternoon while coastal locations were up to 9 degrees below normal for this time of year. This was thanks to a marine layer at around 1,800- 2,000 feet in depth that refused to mix out. The warming trend will take a pause for tomorrow and will see similar temperatures as we did today once low clouds retreat to the coast. Low clouds are forecast to return tonight and spread locally inland across the Central Coast, around the San Francisco Bay Area, and places such as Napa. The ongoing forecast remains on track with no updates needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 123 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Interesting current weather situation around the Bay Area and Central Coast. It`s all about the details. Generally speaking, morning marine layer was slow to clear back to the coast and for the coast clouds never cleared. As for the details, moderate onshore flow (SFO-SAC) and falling 500 mb heights likely contributed to the slow clearing of morning clouds. If one were to overlay the morning layer footprint and 24 hour trends one would see cooler temps today where the marine layer had some influence. Areas outside of the marine layer footprint are running a little warmer than yesterday. Heading into Tuesday - the marine layer lurking along the coast will move inland again so no drastic change with overall sensible weather from the last few nights. One change will be the longwave pattern overhead. The ridge the brought our recent warmup will flatten as a broad upper level trough sweeps through the PacNW. The flattening ridge will keep the marine layer established with overall cooling temperatures, still below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 140 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The cooling trend will be short-lived as the flattened ridge begins to build back over the region with warming 850 mb temps and rising 500 mb heights. Still looks like night/morning clouds with inland afternoon sunshine will persist. The warming trend will continue into next weekend. Far inland locations will reach the low 90s by week`s end. The interior warmth on Friday will lead to moderate HeatRisk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 Stratus will build into area terminals throughout the night, leading to predominantly IFR/MVFR CIGs across coastal terminals. Only far inland terminals are expected to remain VFR through the night tonight, though a FEW low clouds may build in the mid morning of Tuesday. Late clearing of stratus is expected, towards the late morning. Into the afternoon, gusty onshore winds are expected, with gusts generally in the 20-25 knot range, higher at SFO. Winds will be slow to ease, with breezy conditions lingering through the end of the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR conditions last through the late morning. At this time, highest confidence is in an 18Z clearing, ushering in VFR conditions as westerly winds begin to increase. Gusts will steadily build in the afternoon, reaching up to around 30-33 knots at the strongest. Into the late night, winds are slow to ease with gusts above 20-25 knots persisting as night begins to fall. It is not until the early morning of Wednesday that gusts are expected to decrease, with sustained winds lowering to become breezy. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR/IFR conditions persist through the late morning. Stratus expected to begin to lift and mix out towards 18Z, bringing a return of brief VFR conditions. Winds increase out of the NW to become breezy around 15 knots, with occasional gusts closer to the 20 knot range. Stratus returns bringing IFR/MVFR CIGs in the early evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 442 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Breezy to gusty northwest winds continuing across the coastal waters through the week with westerly breezes increasing each afternoon and evening across the bays. Wave heights beginning to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to 13 feet. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...AC MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea