Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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975 FXUS66 KMTR 091011 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 311 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Inland high temperatures reach into the 80s today with 70s closer to the SF Bay with high clouds present as a weak trough moves through our region. Beginning tomorrow, high pressure resumes, leading into our next warmup. The warmest day will be Tuesday, with Moderate HeatRisk expected for inland regions, and Minor everywhere else. High temperatures dip just a few degrees Wednesday, but will cool most significantly Thursday as troughing resumes. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At this moment, its a quiet night, with satellite showing passing high clouds moving through the region as a weak trough moves through. Very Little stratus is to be found along the coast, having been mixed out. Temperatures along the coast and bay where stratus was present yesterday are generally 1-2 degrees cooler now than they were the same time last night, likely due to greater radiative cooling ability now that the "blanket" of stratus has been eroded. Looking forwards to the the day today, high temperatures will be in the mid to low 80s for inland areas, with low to mid 70s expected closer to the SF Bay. Along the coastline, high temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will generally be just a few degrees lower than normal for bay and coastal areas today, with inland areas seeing temperatures perhaps just 1 or 2 degrees below normal. The one exception appears to be the far northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties where the warmest temperatures will be found; here temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees above normal. The aforementioned upper level trough will also help create breezier conditions in the afternoon once more today, largely in the Salinas valley and the East Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the 25-30 mph mark in these favored areas are possible, but then ease into the nighttime. In short, its a lovely June weekend. Get out and enjoy it before our next heat wave begins Monday! && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Starting Monday, our visiting upper level trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming a cut-off low. Without any good steering mechanism, models show this low lingering off the southern CA through at least the midweek. However, the larger focus will be the ridging that develops in its place over our region tomorrow that will bring us our next warm up. Starting Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the high 80s and lower 90s for inland regions, with the warmest spots achieving temperatures in the mid 90s. Tuesday, the warmest temperatures are expected with temperature increasing a few degrees more. Mid to upper 90s are expected for inland areas, as well as low 100s in the northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties, the southern Salinas valley and San Benito county, and more generally along the easternmost portions of counties bordering the Central Valley. Warm temperatures persist into Wednesday, but begin to drop by a few degrees, with high temps largely similar to those on Monday. Coastal areas throughout this event will remain relatively cool in the mid to upper 60s, perhaps touching the lower 70s on Tuesday as onshore flow helps maintain more comfortable temperatures. As it currently stands, models continue to show light onshore flow persisting. With these warmer temperatures comes increased HeatRisk. While Monday and Wednesday see largely Minor HeatRisk for the majority of our area, Tuesday will have many inland locations achieving Moderate levels of HeatRisk while coastal areas remain in the Minor category. This moderate category indicates a level of heat that affects most individuals sensitive to heat, such as those that are ill, elderly, very young, or without shelter or a means to cool themselves such as air conditioning. As we draw nearer to this event, keep in mind that even if only Minor HeatRisk is indicated, that heat related illness and impacts can affect anyone, especially when heat is prolonged. Its never a bad idea to make sure you are staying adequately hydrated during times of warmer temperatures, taking breaks in the shade if working outdoors, and to check in on loved ones who perhaps fall into the demographics of those sensitive to heat. Additionally, if planning to visit the coast or a body of water to cool off, make sure you wear a lifejacket, swim ideally near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. Towards Thursday, high temperatures decrease and begin to cool off as troughing resumes and the cutoff low rejoins upper level flow and lifts out to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals with not a cloud in the sky. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period at all terminals except the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period, becoming gusty this afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with easterly flow. Moderate confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will transition to become westerly and gusty this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected. Winds will diminish overnight and remain westerly through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at both terminals. Winds will prevail out of the west for MRY and out of the northwest for SNS through the TAF period. Confidence is not high on if the terminals will see any reduction in flight category through the TAF period; however, with the pattern being dominated by high pressure, the most likely outcome would be LIFR conditions in the early-to-mid morning hours with greater confidence of occurrence at MRY as compared to SNS due to the proximity to the Pacific Ocean. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 306 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Breezy to gusty northwesterly breezes continue across most of the waters. Winds increase across the northern water into the next work week with gale conditions expected. Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed in. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC/Murdock LONG TERM....AC/Murdock AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea