Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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602 FXUS66 KMTR 120613 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Hot today, a weak front moves through the area tonight bringing a slight cool off for tomorrow. Quiet through the rest of the week with temps at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards the end of the period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Forecast remains on track for temperatures gradually moderating back toward normal through the remainder of the week. Todays heat advisories have expired, however temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal tomorrow under mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Current temperatures are reasonably in line with the forecast as we get through midday. No major changes to the short term as a weak upper level disturbance is set to flatten the ridge and provide a bit of a cool down for Wednesday. The Heat Advisory currently in effect for inland areas will be allowed to expire tonight. Overall high temperatures Wednesday will be about 5-7 degrees cooler than today, mainly for inland locations. Really nothing else to write about in the short term, as all remains relatively quiet. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of "offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will update messaging accordingly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High pressure over the region has all but eroded the marine layer and coastal clouds (stratus) along the northern portion of the coast. As a result, expected widespread VFR across the region through the night and into the evening Wednesday, with the exception of Monterey Bay who is likely to see LIFR conditions Wednesday morning from low stratus ceilings. Winds in the afternoon of Wednesday will increase to become breezy and gusty out of the southwest as low pressure to our south begins to lift out of the region. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence. Stratus has completely disappeared from the coast and not expected to return within the TAF period. Winds in the morning of Wednesday are expected to turn SW, though there is some question as to how strong winds will become in the afternoon. There appears to be some model disagreement in wind strength. Moderate confidence in winds achieving gusts of 25 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR, but expected to develop LIFR ceilings in the early morning of Wednesday as stratus clouds slowly creep up the Monterey coastline through the overnight. LIFR then lasts beyond sunrise. Clearing of stratus clouds is not expected until late, towards noontime, with only a few hours in VFR conditions. As SW winds strengthen into the afternoon to become moderate around 15 knots, stratus is expected to push in once more, bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings. Ceilings then last through the remainder of the TAF period with winds slowly easing into the late night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 449 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Strong northwest winds continue through Wednesday across the outer waters with gale force gusts in the northern outer waters. Winds diminish late Wednesday before strengthening again towards the later part of the week. Waves up to 13 to 15 feet are possible in the outer waters through the week, mainly driven by winds with a moderate northwest swell and a low southwest swell in the background. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...AC MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea