306
FXUS66 KMTR 111622
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
922 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The hottest temperatures are expected today with a Heat Advisory
posted for interior areas. Starting Wednesday, the cool down begins
as zonal flow resumes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Temperatures appear on track with the current forecast temps and
stratus clearing, so will not make any changes this morning. Heat
Advisory officially goes into effect at 11AM this morning and will
run through 8PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The interior is forecast to reach into the mid 90`s to 102 degrees
this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is posted for interior
portions of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM. This is where HeatRisk
are at moderate levels with a few isolated spots at major levels in
the far inland portions of the North Bay and East Bay. This is where
impacts will be greatest to all who are sensitive to heat (ill,
young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling
and/or hydration. Continued onshore flow will keep conditions cooler
near the immediate coast with mid/upper 60`s to low 70`s with 80`s
to low 90`s around the bayshore.

For anyone participating in outdoors activities today, remember to
drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded
area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of
water: remember to wear a life jacket, ideally swim near a
lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

Temperatures this evening will cool fairly quickly as onshore flow
increases with overnight lows generally in the 50`s (warmer in the
higher elevations). Low clouds look to return overnight,
particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF
Peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80`s to low 90`s inland
with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90`s (places such as
Lake Berryessa). Wednesday marks the last day with isolated moderate
HeatRisk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday
through Monday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland
highs will drop back into the 80`s to low 90`s. For coastal areas,
high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s
as onshore flow persists.

Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to
exercise caution when using campfires and grills/smokers to prevent
sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires (Crystal
Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are
nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A mix of VFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions are present this morning at
area terminals. Those under IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning are seeing
coastal stratus continuing to linger. However, satellite shows
stratus beginning to erode as a warmer and drier air mass aloft
begins to compress the marine layer and wick away moisture. Expect
widespread VFR conditions to return to terminals beyond sunrise
today, with clearing generally expected in the 15-18Z window. Winds
increase out of the W/NW this afternoon to become breezy for
terminals, then decreases into the late evening to become light for
most. Stratus is not expected to make a return to area terminals
until very late in the TAF period.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts through the TAF period, high confidence.
Breezy W/NW winds return in the afternoon today and last through the
early evening. Winds then ease to become light into the early
morning of Wednesday. Towards the very end of the extended TAF
period, winds are likely to begin to turn SW as a low approaches.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions will persist through at
least sunrise, clearing expected towards 16/17Z timeframe. VFR then
lasts through the late night, as stratus is expected to be largely
eroded by the warmer and drier air mass aloft. It is not until early
Wednesday that stratus and LIFR conditions are expected to return.
Winds Tuesday afternoon W/NW around 10-13 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong northwest winds over the outer waters continue through
midweek, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer waters
expected through early Wednesday. Winds diminish in the afternoon
Wednesday. Significant wave heights 13 to 15 feet possible in the
northern outer waters through Wednesday. Significant wave heights
will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a
moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed
in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...DialH

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