Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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126 FXUS66 KMTR 261850 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1150 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cooling trend begins today with temperatures mostly at, or slightly below normal for this time of year. Thursday will see temperatures drop another few degrees for most locations, especially inland. A warmup looks likely for the beginning of next week, when a pattern change results in upper level ridging across our region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Low stratus has begun to edge farther inland, with further intrusion into the Salinas Valley in the Central Coast, East Bay, and the North Bay vallies of Petaluma, Sonoma and Napa. Some patchy fog can be expected near the coast in southern Santa Cruz county early this morning as well. The low clouds will persist through late this morning/early afternoon. Breezy winds can be expected this afternoon as a trough axis approaches from the west. Today is the beginning of a pleasant cool down with temperatures mostly at or slightly below normal. Thursday will see temperatures drop a few more degrees, especially further inland as the trough axis shifts east across our area, with decreasing H50 heights and thicknesses. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 121 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Temperatures at or slightly below normal will persist through the end of the work week into the weekend. A low amplitude progressive ridge will be overhead on Friday with little impact on temperatures. A sharpening trough moving onshore will keep high temperatures similar Saturday and Sunday. Once the aforementioned trough shifts east of our area Sunday night, a ridging pattern will set in for the beginning of next week. Inland temperatures will jump 5-10 degrees from Sunday to Monday, with the warmer temperatures expected to persist through the remainder of the extended forecast and beyond. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Lower clouds are lingering around the bays, but are expected to erode this afternoon leading to widespread VFR. Winds increase into the afternoon with strong and gusty winds at SFO and along the coast, while other areas stay moderate to breezy. Winds reduce into the evening and early night as IFR/MVFR CIGs move over the coast and Monterey Bay terminals. Winds aloft in the North Bay remain strong for the first part of the night, leading to LLWS concerns. CIGs fill around the SF Bay early Thursday morning with cloud cover region- wide expected to erode in the late morning leading to widespread VFR Thursday afternoon with another round of breezy winds. Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into early Thursday morning. Winds increase this afternoon with gusts peaking around 33 kts. These winds last into the night, reducing, but staying breezy for much of the night. MVFR CIGs fill over the SF Bay early Thursday morning as winds become moderate. CIGs erode into late Thursday morning with breezy to gusty winds building that afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the evening. Moderate to breezy westerly winds build this afternoon, with slightly stronger winds expected at the immediate coast. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR CIGS move inland and fill over MRY, with SNS filling later into the night. CIGS erode in the late morning on Thursday as moderate to breezy winds arrive. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1150 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Strong northwesterly breezes with gusts approaching gale force will build this afternoon and last through for most of the period. Wind is the main driver for the Small Craft Advisories as significant wave heights generally remain below 10 feet through the period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea