Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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309 FXUS66 KMTR 110553 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1053 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as troughing resumes. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The forecast remains on track with the warming trend expected to continue through midweek. Current observations depict inland temperature running on average 5 to 10 degrees warmer at this hour than 24 hrs ago. Along the immediate coast however temperatures are running 1 to 4 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago as a direct result of the onshore marine influence. No changes were made to the forecast this evening. Above normal temperatures will remain the dominant weather concern into Tuesday with the current Heat Advisory going into effect at 11:00 am Tuesday morning and continuing through 8:00 pm Tuesday evening across the interior portions of warning area. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Temperatures are starting to heat up inland with current observations, as of 1PM, showing temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. However, we still have a few more hours of heating to go this afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s across inland areas. Minor to moderate heat risk continues throughout most of the Bay Area through the rest of Monday. For those along the coast, an impressive stratus layer helped to keep temperatures on the cooler side this morning. High temperatures in areas close to the shoreline will be in the mid 70s to low 80s while highs directly along the coast will largely be in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly this evening as breezy onshore flow returns with overnight lows in the 50s expected. Overcast conditions look to return overnight, particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast and portions of the North Bay. Looking forward to Tuesday, upper level ridging will continue to build and tomorrow`s high temperatures will be the peak of the heat wave. Inland temperatures will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s with the hottest regions (portions of North Bay, East Bay Hills, and portions of interior Monterey and San Benito counties) reaching into the low 100s. Coastal highs will be cooler thanks to continued weak onshore flow with temperatures peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s. It will be fairly dry across the interior with daytime RH values dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. The HeatRisk product shows moderate impacts over much of the Bay Area and interior Central Coast. The hottest areas of the North and East Bays are expected to experience major heat risk which will impact all who are sensitive to heat (ill, young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling and/or hydration. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday across interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. For anyone participating in outdoors activities today and tomorrow, remember to drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of water: remember to weak a life jacket, ideally swim near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will range from the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be hot but we will at least be over the peak of the heat wave. Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s inland with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. Wednesday marks the last day with widespread moderate heat risk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday through Sunday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland highs will drop back into the 80s to low 90s. For coastal areas, high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s as onshore flow continues. Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to exercise caution when using a campfire and grills/smokers to prevent sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires (Crystal Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A look at satellite this evening shows mostly clear skies across the region with coastal clouds beginning to creep inland down the Salinas Valley, and inland through the Golden Gate gap. The Ft. Ord and Bodega Bay Profilers show the marine layer currently around 1000 and 400 feet, respectively, and compressing as a warmer and drier air mass begins to form aloft. Otherwise, its currently VFR across the region, with the exception of Monterey Bay. However, expect coastal terminals to develop IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight tonight as the low coastal clouds continue to push inland, and high pressure developing continually compresses the marine layer. This compression will result in cloud ceilings lowering through the nighttime, ushering in the LIFR conditions for select terminals, especially Monterey Bay. Light winds are expected overnight, but will generally be out of the west, helping to deliver and transport these clouds inland. Beyond sunrise, coastal clouds will begin to mix out, leading to widespread VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Winds will increase to become onshore and breezy in the afternoon today. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR, with moderate confidence on maintaining VFR conditions through the nighttime. Low clouds filtering through the Golden Gate gap may form SCT-FEW clouds around the terminal, but confidence is low in them forming a ceiling. Additionally, as the marine layer continues to compress, thoughts are that clouds will be prevented from filtering in through the San Bruno gap, thereby lessening the chances of ceiling formation at the terminal. Winds light overnight tonight, then increasing into the afternoon out of the W/NW and breezy around 13 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions will persist through at least sunrise, with visibility expected to decrease throughout the night as cloud ceilings continually lower through the night, eventually resulting in fog formation in the early morning of Tuesday. Beyond sunrise, expectation is that these low clouds will begin to mix out and evaporate, leading to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 824 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes along with rough seas continue to prevail over the outer waters. Winds increase through mid-week and again into the weekend with gale-force gusts expected over the outer waters. Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed in. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510- 513>515-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...AC MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea