Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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553 FXUS66 KMTR 102100 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as troughing resumes. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Temperatures are starting to heat up inland with current observations, as of 1PM, showing temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. However, we still have a few more hours of heating to go this afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s across inland areas. Minor to moderate heat risk continues throughout most of the Bay Area through the rest of Monday. For those along the coast, an impressive stratus layer helped to keep temperatures on the cooler side this morning. High temperatures in areas close to the shoreline will be in the mid 70s to low 80s while highs directly along the coast will largely be in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly this evening as breezy onshore flow returns with overnight lows in the 50s expected. Overcast conditions look to return overnight, particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast and portions of the North Bay. Looking forward to Tuesday, upper level ridging will continue to build and tomorrow`s high temperatures will be the peak of the heat wave. Inland temperatures will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s with the hottest regions (portions of North Bay, East Bay Hills, and portions of interior Monterey and San Benito counties) reaching into the low 100s. Coastal highs will be cooler thanks to continued weak onshore flow with temperatures peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s. It will be fairly dry across the interior with daytime RH values dropping into the low 20s to low 30s. The HeatRisk product shows moderate impacts over much of the Bay Area and interior Central Coast. The hottest areas of the North and East Bays are expected to experience major heat risk which will impact all who are sensitive to heat (ill, young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling and/or hydration. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued from 11AM to 8PM on Tuesday across interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. For anyone participating in outdoors activities today and tomorrow, remember to drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of water: remember to weak a life jacket, ideally swim near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 159 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will range from the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be hot but we will at least be over the peak of the heat wave. Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s inland with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. Wednesday marks the last day with widespread moderate heat risk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday through Sunday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland highs will drop back into the 80s to low 90s. For coastal areas, high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s as onshore flow continues. Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to exercise caution when using a campfire and grills/smokers to prevent sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grassfires (Crystal Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions have set in at all terminals except MTR where lingering low stratus is expected to burn off by late morning. VFR will prevail through the afternoon and evening hours, when stratus is expected to develop later tonight dropping ceilings and visibility to IFR/LIFR overnight into early tomorrow morning. Gusty onshore winds this afternoon will ease after sunset. Drizzle is possible along the coast line overnight into early tomorrow morning as well. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail the remainder of today and tonight with gusty west winds easing after sunset but remaining breezy overnight. Low stratus may develop by early Tuesday morning with the potential of IFR by sunrise, and eroding by mid to late morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to lift by early afternoon with breezy onshore winds easing after sunset. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to develop later tonight with mist/drizzle also possible into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 846 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Breezy and gusty northwesterly winds continue along with rough seas for the outer waters. Winds increase in through the mid week with gale-force gusts expected in the northern waters. Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed in. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510- 513>515-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...JM MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea