602
FXUS66 KMTR 120613
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hot today, a weak front moves through the area tonight bringing a
slight cool off for tomorrow. Quiet through the rest of the week
with temps at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend.
Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards the end of
the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Forecast remains on track for temperatures gradually moderating
back toward normal through the remainder of the week. Todays heat
advisories have expired, however temperatures will remain 5 to 10
degrees above normal tomorrow under mostly sunny skies and
relatively light winds away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Current temperatures are reasonably in line with the forecast as
we get through midday. No major changes to the short term as a
weak upper level disturbance is set to flatten the ridge and
provide a bit of a cool down for Wednesday. The Heat Advisory
currently in effect for inland areas will be allowed to expire
tonight. Overall high temperatures Wednesday will be about 5-7
degrees cooler than today, mainly for inland locations. Really
nothing else to write about in the short term, as all remains
relatively quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

High pressure over the region has all but eroded the marine layer
and coastal clouds (stratus) along the northern portion of the
coast. As a result, expected widespread VFR across the region
through the night and into the evening Wednesday, with the exception
of Monterey Bay who is likely to see LIFR conditions Wednesday
morning from low stratus ceilings. Winds in the afternoon of
Wednesday will increase to become breezy and gusty out of the
southwest as low pressure to our south begins to lift out of the
region.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence.
Stratus has completely disappeared from the coast and not expected
to return within the TAF period. Winds in the morning of Wednesday
are expected to turn SW, though there is some question as to how
strong winds will become in the afternoon. There appears to be some
model disagreement in wind strength. Moderate confidence in winds
achieving gusts of 25 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR, but expected to develop LIFR
ceilings in the early morning of Wednesday as stratus clouds slowly
creep up the Monterey coastline through the overnight. LIFR then
lasts beyond sunrise. Clearing of stratus clouds is not expected
until late, towards noontime, with only a few hours in VFR
conditions. As SW winds strengthen into the afternoon to become
moderate around 15 knots, stratus is expected to push in once more,
bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings. Ceilings then last through the remainder
of the TAF period with winds slowly easing into the late night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 449 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong northwest winds continue through Wednesday across the outer
waters with gale force gusts in the northern outer waters. Winds
diminish late Wednesday before strengthening again towards the
later  part of the week. Waves up to 13 to 15 feet are possible in
the  outer waters through the week, mainly driven by winds with a
moderate northwest swell and a low southwest swell in the
background.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...DialH

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