946
FXUS66 KMTR 071212
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
512 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely
near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging
redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as
they did the last few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A look at nighttime satellite this morning shows stratus
trickling down the Salinas valley, and attempting to reach up into
the SF Bay Area. An "otter eddy" can be seen swirling about the
Monterey Bay as stratus continues to feed in. Elsewhere, skies are
clear and temperatures comfortable in the mid 50s for most
locations. Speaking of more comfortable temperatures, highs today
will largely be in the low to mid 80s for inland regions, mid to
upper 70s for the SF bay region, and closer to the low 60s for the
coastline. This cooldown comes as a upper level shortwave trough
moves through the region today bringing relief to many regions.
Temperatures will largely be close to seasonal averages, perhaps
just 2-3 degrees above normal for far southern Monterey county and
the northern extremes of Napa and Sonoma counties.

The cooling trend continues into the weekend as models show good
agreement in an upper level trough developing Saturday. This will
also usher in mid to high level clouds that will dot the sky, with
coastal stratus becoming more widespread. The extent of stratus
along the coastline will be helpful in keeping temperatures on the
cooler side through the early part of the day, around 5-10 degrees
lower than normal in some spots. Along the coastline, high temps
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Further inland on Saturday and
Sunday, highs will generally be in the low 80s, with a few
particular warm spots closest to the Central Valley seeing the upper
80s. This upper level trough will also help create breezier
conditions in the afternoons, largely in the Salinas valley and the
SF Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the
20-25 mph mark in this favored areas are possible, but then ease
into the nighttime.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Starting Monday, the trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming
a cut-off low. This transient low, without any good steering
mechanism, lingers through the mid to late week to our southwest
before exiting off to the east in the later week, lifting into our
region as it does so. Despite this lingering feature, models
indicate slight ridging developing into the early week which will
help to warm temperatures once more. However, as it currently
stands, the warmth will likely not be the the levels seen previously
this week. Low to mid 90s for the inland regions Monday and Tuesday
are forecast, with mid 60s to the lowest 70s at the coast. Tuesday
currently appears to be the warmest day, with high temperatures
generally about 10 degrees above normal for inland locations.
Wednesday, slight cooling returns with high temperatures receding by
a few degrees. This cooling trend persists through the remainder of
the week as the pesky low reconnects with the jet stream and lifts
out to the east.

More zonal flow (west to east) develops over our
region in the late week next week. Current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks suggest near normal temperatures for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Hazy conditions persist through much of the day around the region,
causing reductions in visibilities. Pockets of fog will also
affect portions of the North Bay and Monterey Bay through the mid
morning. Expect IFR/LIFR CIGs along the coast and in the Monterey
Bay through the mid to late morning with some moments of MVFR CIGs
around the SF Bay. CIGS over terminals slowly dissipate in the
late morning and into the afternoon as moderate to breezy winds
build. Pockets of haze will still cause visibility issues. Winds
ease into Friday evening, with lower CIGS moving inland around the
Monterey Bay, with more terminals seeing CIGs later that night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into late Friday night. Expect light
winds through the late morning with some haze around the SF Bay,
but not dense enough to affect SFO. Moderate northwest winds
arrive this afternoon but ease into the late night. As winds
reduce, MVFR CIGS fill over the SF Bay terminals, which will last
until winds pick up in the late morning Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR CIGs last through the late
morning before lifting to around 1500 ft AGL. CIGS dissipate in
the afternoon, but haze lingers in the area. Expect IFR CIGs to
return in the evening with moderate winds reducing into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Areas of fog and drizzle will cause reduced visibility through
the morning across Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast.
Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and north of
the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively. This
will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase
during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later
Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating
additional marine headlines.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea