Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
936 FXUS66 KMTR 071038 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 338 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as they did the last few days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today remained fairly warm inland with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to upper 90s to low 100s in the mountain ranges. Along the coast, cooler temperatures prevailed with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. In general, temperatures for most areas were cooler today than they were yesterday with the end of the heat wave in sight and the heat advisory set to expire tonight. Beginning Friday, seasonal to slightly above average highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected inland while coastal areas continue lingering in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Stratus is expected to return along coastal areas tonight with elevated fog chances in the North Bay (particularly for Santa Rosa) and within the Monterey Bay. For early morning commuters, if you encounter fog while driving remember to slow down and account for extra time to reach your destination. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A look at nighttime satellite this morning shows stratus trickling down the Salinas valley, and attempting to reach up into the SF Bay Area. An "otter eddy" can be seen swirling about the Monterey Bay as stratus continues to feed in. Elsewhere, skies are clear and temperatures comfortable in the mid 50s for most locations. Speaking of more comfortable temperatures, highs today will largely be in the low to mid 80s for inland regions, mid to upper 70s for the SF bay region, and closer to the low 60s for the coastline. This cooldown comes as a upper level shortwave trough moves through the region today bringing relief to many regions. Temperatures will largely be close to seasonal averages, perhaps just 2-3 degrees above normal for far southern Monterey county and the northern extremes of Napa and Sonoma counties. The cooling trend continues into the weekend as models show good agreement in an upper level trough developing Saturday. This will also usher in mid to high level clouds that will dot the sky, with coastal stratus becoming more widespread. The extent of stratus along the coastline will be helpful in keeping temperatures on the cooler side through the early part of the day, around 5-10 degrees lower than normal in some spots. Along the coastline, high temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Further inland on Saturday and Sunday, highs will generally be in the low 80s, with a few particular warm spots closest to the Central Valley seeing the upper 80s. This upper level trough will also help create breezier conditions in the afternoons, largely in the Salinas valley and the SF Bay counties bordering the delta region. Wind gusts towards the 20-25 mph mark in this favored areas are possible, but then ease into the nighttime. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Starting Monday, the trough begins to be cut off, eventually forming a cut-off low. This transient low, without any good steering mechanism, lingers through the mid to late week to our southwest before exiting off to the east in the later week, lifting into our region as it does so. Despite this lingering feature, models indicate slight ridging developing into the early week which will help to warm temperatures once more. However, as it currently stands, the warmth will likely not be the the levels seen previously this week. Low to mid 90s for the inland regions Monday and Tuesday are forecast, with mid 60s to the lowest 70s at the coast. Tuesday currently appears to be the warmest day, with high temperatures generally about 10 degrees above normal for inland locations. Wednesday, slight cooling returns with high temperatures receding by a few degrees. This cooling trend persists through the remainder of the week as the pesky low reconnects with the jet stream and lifts out to the east. More zonal flow (west to east) develops over our region in the late week next week. Current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks suggest near normal temperatures for our region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Poor flying conditions will continue at Monterey Bay terminals through a good portion of the day on Friday (especially at SNS). VFR was noted at other terminals, but MVFR ceiling/IFR visibility is forecast to set in by sunrise Friday at just about all terminals except SJC and LVK. The potential for MVFR has increased at SJC, however, the chances remain under 20%. Confidence is medium on ceiling and the visibility forecast. Vicinity of SFO...VFR continued this evening, though by sunrise Friday, MVFR stratus is forecast to be entrenched across the SF Peninsula. Guidance continues to support mostly MVFR ceilings/visibility, though an hour or two of IFR cigs/vsby cannot be completely discounted. There still appears to be an opportunity for a return to VFR during the afternoon with MVFR resuming quickly near or just after sundown and continue into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, though the onset/cessation time for MVFR stratus may differ by up to an hour. Monterey Bay Terminals...The poorest flying conditions are forecast at the Monterey Bay airfields. IFR is well entrenched across the area, though visibility has been slow to drop. Model trends still support IFR visibility, though it appears to be a a little too pessimistic. The current TAF set will advertise visibility down to 1 SM. VFR is forecast to at MRY, though SNS may remain MVFR...potentially IFR...through the entire TAF period. If the marine layer is a bit more established at MRY, VFR may not return in the afternoon as currently advertised. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Areas of fog and drizzle will cause reduced visibility through the morning across Monterey Bay and along the Big Sur Coast. Winds and seas will remain hazardous for areas along and north of the Greater Farallones through Friday afternoon where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to subside below 20 knots and 10 feet, respectively. This will be relatively short lived as 20-25 knot winds increase during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Seas will respond later Sunday morning and into the afternoon, likely necessitating additional marine headlines. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM....AC AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea