Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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961 FXUS66 KMTR 061810 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1110 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Hot inland otherwise expecting the beginning of a cooling trend today mainly on the coastline then cooling reaches further inland Friday through Sunday. Another potential hot period mid next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Forecast looks on track today, overall running about 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Still warm today with minor to moderate Heat Risk for most. Some haze currently being observed may act to keep temps a bit cooler than expected for areas more near the coast. Still looking like we`ll shave off another 3-5 degrees for tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 259 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 There are markedly different temperatures across the Bay Area and north Central Coast depending on your location this morning. For example there`s as much as 36F degree difference in temperatures from 83F on Mt Tam (within the lower level temperature inversion - a result of large scale sinking motion with the high pressure system) vs mid 50s to upper 40s near sea level (due to a chilly maritime influence) in Marin county at 2 am. Similarly it`s in the lower 80s elsewhere along the ridgetops of the Bay Area, however again it`s generally cooler with light breezes closer to sea level nearest the bay and especially along the coastline. Surface winds are settling in to a new regime in response to newly developing adjustments in surface pressure gradients. Northerly and southerly directed winds will join with the onshore wind and begin to steepen today, this will bring about cooling from sea level up through about 2500 feet today, best chances of this along the immediate coast. At the moment, will let the Heat Advisory continue as is, but we are closing in on the time when we can think about reducing some of its coverage, possibly more so during the day shift and/or evening shift. On the mid shift we`ll continue to closely monitor the development of coastal stratus and fog and marine layer depth. Seeing the northerly pressure gradient gradually reducing is a good sign, which will help give more equal weight to the onshore gradient and wind today, the NAM forecasts the SFO-SAC gradient to near 4 mb this afternoon. Sea surface temps in our coastal waters vary from a few upper 40s to lower 50s, nice and chilly which helps provide good potential for a sea breeze. HREF output shows more coastal stratus and fog tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A cooling trend continues into the weekend, onshore breezes will extend farther inland. Daytime highs on the coastline cooler than typical for this time in June, inland daytime highs will also cool back to near typical in June. Weak upper level troughing moves across the forecast area over the weekend then the global models forecast increasing high pressure redeveloping over northern California early to mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR prevails across all terminals late this morning and is expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Low stratus cloud field continues to gradually build and expand over the water and will eventually begin to fill in over coastal locations after midnight tonight and continue through the remainder of the forecast period. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the the afternoon and evening hours with gusty winds later today beginning to ease after sunset. Low stratus ceilings are expected to build in during the overnight/pre-dawn hours and persist into Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to persist this afternoon and evening with low stratus clouds encroaching on the terminals at times. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected after sunset, likely to persist through the remainder of the forecast period tomorrow. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Expect breezy northerly winds to persist through the day before gradually easing into Friday. These winds along with rough seas will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft. A moderate period Northwest swell will continue impact the coastal waters but will diminish Friday through Saturday before waves build again towards the end of the period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 222 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Thursday evening. Forecast remains on track. Moderate period swell is entering the coastal waters at 14-17 seconds with heights varying 7-11 feet. The would generate breaking waves of 8-15 feet with locally higher waves at favored break points. Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 530. Heat Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ503-504-506-510- 512>516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...JM MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea