673
FXUS66 KMTR 112048
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
148 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hot today, a weak front moves through the area tonight bringing a
slight cool off for tomorrow. Quiet through the rest of the week
with temps at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend.
Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards the end of
the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Current temperatures are reasonably in line with the forecast as
we get through midday. No major changes to the short term as a
weak upper level disturbance is set to flatten the ridge and
provide a bit of a cool down for Wednesday. The Heat Advisory
currently in effect for inland areas will be allowed to expire
tonight. Overall high temperatures Wednesday will be about 5-7
degrees cooler than today, mainly for inland locations. Really
nothing else to write about in the short term, as all remains
relatively quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

LIFR-IFR stratus persists at the immediate coast, but is generally
expected to gradually mix out through the rest of the day. Breezy
onshore flow, generally from the northwest, is expected to develop
this afternoon with gusts up to 15 knots. Stratus returns to the
Monterey Bay region, Salinas Valley, and the Gilroy-Hollister region
tonight, and generally limited to the immediate coastal region
elsewhere. Models indicate that afternoon and evening winds will
turn to a more southwesterly direction on Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO... High confidence of VFR through the TAF period.
OAK sees a low probability (less than 10%) of IFR-LIFR stratus
tonight, but with very low confidence in said scenario the TAF
remains VFR throughout. West-northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots
this afternoon and evening, diminishing overnight before they turn
towards the southwest on Wednesday, becoming somewhat more intense
with gusts up to 25-30 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR continues through the day with stratus
at the immediate coast diminishing through the afternoon. Breezy
onshore winds developing this afternoon and evening, with gusts up
to 15-20 knots at SNS. LIFR stratus returns late tonight and through
Wednesday morning. Timing of clearing is somewhat uncertain but a
persistence forecast has the clearing just before the end of the TAF
period. Breezy onshore winds return to the region on Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong northwest winds over the outer waters continue through
midweek, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer waters
expected through early Wednesday. Winds diminish in the afternoon
Wednesday. Significant wave heights 13 to 15 feet possible in the
northern outer waters through Wednesday. Significant wave heights
will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a
moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed
in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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