Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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409 FGUS63 KKRF 201854 ESPNPL LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1136 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTHGATE CO 4NW NGTC2 8.0 9.5 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :ENCAMPMENT R AT ENCAMPMENT WY 8NE ECRW4 6.5 7.5 8.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT SARATOGA WY SRAW4 8.5 9.5 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT SINCLAIR WY 7NE SINW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :MEDICINE BOW R AT HANNA WY 10N HANW4 6.0 7.0 8.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT CASPER WY 1NW CPRW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT GLENROCK WY 5ESE GLNW4 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT ORIN WY 2E ORIW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LARAMIE R AT WOODS LNDNG WY 3NE WODW4 6.0 6.5 7.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LARAMIE R AT LARAMIE WY LLRW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LARAMIE R AT BOSLER WY 2S BOSW4 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LARAMIE R AT FT LARAMIE WY 5SSW FLAW4 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT HENRY NE 1S HENN1 5.5 6.5 7.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT MITCHELL NE 1S MICN1 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT MINATARE NE 2SW MNTN1 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT BRIDGEPORT NE 1NNE BGPN1 9.5 10.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT LISCO NE 1S LSON1 4.0 5.0 6.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT LEWELLEN NE NO CH LEWN1 8.0 9.0 10.0 | 6 6 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :NORTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE NPTN1 6.0 6.5 7.0 | <5 <5 16 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :NORTH PLATTE R NGTC2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.3/ :ENCAMPMENT R ECRW4 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.6/ :NORTH PLATTE R SRAW4 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.5/ SINW4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 3.9/ :MEDICINE BOW R HANW4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.0/ :NORTH PLATTE R CPRW4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ GLNW4 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ ORIW4 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ :LARAMIE R WODW4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.0/ LLRW4 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.5/ BOSW4 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.1/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.3/ FLAW4 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.4/ :NORTH PLATTE R HENN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.2/ MICN1 3.5/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.4/ MNTN1 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.5/ BGPN1 5.7/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.4/ LSON1 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2/ LEWN1 7.4/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.8/ 8.1/ NPTN1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.4/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :NORTH PLATTE R NGTC2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ :ENCAMPMENT R ECRW4 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ :NORTH PLATTE R SRAW4 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ SINW4 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ :MEDICINE BOW R HANW4 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ :NORTH PLATTE R CPRW4 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ GLNW4 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ ORIW4 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ :LARAMIE R WODW4 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ LLRW4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ BOSW4 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ FLAW4 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ :NORTH PLATTE R HENN1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ MICN1 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.3/ MNTN1 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ BGPN1 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ LSON1 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ LEWN1 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ NPTN1 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ .END $$