Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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423 FXUS63 KOAX 141644 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some patchy fog is possible this morning, but should dissipate quickly after sunrise. - Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least next week with highs in the 80s. - Most likely dry through Monday, then periodic chances for thunderstorms starting Monday night. Highest chances appear to be Tuesday night into Wednesday and Friday into Saturday (40-60%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Pretty quiet across the area early this morning with the large scale pattern being fairly similar to that of 24 hours ago. Remnants of Hurricane Francine continued to spin over the southeastern United States with associated clouds (but no precip) clipping portions of far southeast NE into IA. Broad upper level troughing remained in place over the western CONUS while a cutoff low was pushing north through Saskatchewan. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the low stretched south- southwest through the Dakotas and into NE. Radar showed a few showers just ahead of this front up in ND and MN, but farther south returns were very spotty and light, and likely not enough to reach the ground, so really we weren`t seeing much more than some increased cloud cover in portions of northeast NE. The main thing to keep an eye on this morning will be stratus and potential fog development across a good chunk of the area as southeasterly surface flow continues to usher in a decent slug of moisture. Currently think fog will remain somewhat patchy with guidance showing winds just above the surface will be around 15-20 kts. In addition, the stratus should help keep some areas a few degrees above the dewpoint. Otherwise expect a pretty nice and quiet Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few showers and storms are expected to develop in vicinity of the front late this afternoon/this evening, but guidance is in good agreement that those will stay to our west. Upper level ridging will start to build over the area Sunday with highs slated to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Once again expect a dry day, but guidance suggests some spotty shower and storm development during the evening and overnight as moisture transport points near or possibly into the forecast area. Highest chances currently look to remain to our west and east, but still around a 10% chance we see a little something in our area (if it happens, it likely won`t amount to much). Monday and Monday night look similar though perhaps a few degrees cooler with some lingering cloud cover. Meanwhile, another large scale upper level trough will be digging into the western CONUS with the axis approaching the Rockies by Tuesday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front looks to push into at least western NE around this timeframe while some weak shortwave energy ejects out of the main trough Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing our next chances for precip. While it doesn`t look like a particularly organized system, it is probably our next chance for at least a couple tenths of an inch of rain, with 40-60% rain chances across the area. Additional bits of shortwave energy will push through at times heading into Thursday and Friday morning, before a stronger system looks to push through Friday afternoon into Saturday. That one will probably be our best chance for widespread precip and while chances currently top out around 50-60%, those will likely be higher once we get a better handle on exact timing. Also should mention some of the GEFS-based severe weather probability products show at least some low end potential (around 5%) Wednesday through Friday. Plenty of time to work out the details, but overall looking like a more active pattern by mid to late next week. Otherwise expect continued highs in the 80s, though if a day or 2 have more precip, we could be a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Patchy fog earlier this morning has lifted into a broken stratus deck around 1500-2500 feet AGL. This will continue to slowly lift through early this afternoon, with VFR conditions expected by around 19Z. Winds remain out of the southeast through the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...McCoy