694
FXUS63 KOAX 250450
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1150 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with mostly
  dry conditions through Thursday.

- A complex weather pattern is in store going into and lasting
  through the weekend, with increasing confidence in drier
  conditions and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Water vapor analysis reveals an upper level trof that`s deepening as
it pushes southeast this morning. That and the ridging over the
western half of the CONUS leaves a 60 knot jet diving directly south
over the High Plains. Surface analysis shows the cold front
just pushing into the far southeastern tip of Nebraska as of 2
PM.

A band of showers tied to the upper level feature this morning was
responsible for some rainfall totals of about few hundredths.
Had a high total of 0.18" reported via social media in Lincoln.
Those showers have all but ended. Along that cold front this
afternoon, SBCAPE of up to 1,000 J/kg can be expected with shear
values of about 30 knots. CAMs have produced some minor
convection along the MO/NE intersection between 2pm and 6pm.
Sure enough, there are some new returns in southwest Iowa over
the past 30 minutes. Expect an isolated thundershower to develop
there with better chances in the Show- Me state through 6pm.

.TONIGHT...

As the upper low continues southeast, a surface high builds into the
area clearing skies and dampens wind speeds. Temps should drop
below 50 degrees for most. Have undercut NBM guidance due to
pattern recognition. It`s time to consider winterizing that
irrigation system.

.WEDNESDAY and into the WEEKEND...

Watching the long-range global models trying to prog the development
of the tropical system in the GOM and it`s interaction with the
upper low pushing through the Great Plains has been fun over the
past few days and they`re quickly coming to a mutual solution. The
lows will meet over the southeast and merge - like Voltron - into
one powerful stacked low over over the southern Ohio River Valley.

The low will be cut-off from steering flow through the weekend and
will deposit significant and generally needed rainfall to Missouri
and points south and east. This CWA may be clipped by a few
light showers on our southeastern edge and see increasingly
cloudy skies, especially high clouds, build in from the
southeast. Showers will be more of the nuisance variety as QPF
will be mostly inconsequential. Most localities will remain dry.

That mega low opens up and pushes east early next week as
another trof pushes through the Northern Plains.

High temperatures over the next seven days are going to be near
seasonal norms and should vary little from day to day. It should
be a rather pleasant week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy fog
could develop over southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska
tonight. Otherwise, expect skies to remain mostly clear
overnight, with light northwest winds veering to the north by
Wednesday afternoon, and east Wednesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG