Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
810 FXUS63 KOAX 310430 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1130 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible through the evening. Locally heavy rains are the main hazard, with a small 5-10% probability of damaging winds or large hail. - A chance of non severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. - Another round of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night, which could be strong. And yet another round of stronger storms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A line of thunderstorms has developed along a line from Sioux City southward to Beatrice, moving slowly east. These are likely in response to what remains of a couple of MCVs combined with the upper trough remaining in region. 0-6km bulk shear remains on the lower side at 25 to 35 knots today, with MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg. This is all developing within a moist PW axis of 1 to 1.5 inches. It seems the primary concern will be localized flooding with these storms as they appear to be robust rain producers with a southwest to northeast storm train occurring. This cluster will continue to move slowly eastward through the evening and have fairly high 60-80% Pops as it pushes into southwest IA. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary to our west between Ainsworth and and Oneill with storms going up along it. Models time this into northeast NE by 6-7 pm, and continue a storm chance along the boundary mostly in northeast NE north of a line from Columbus to Onawa. And across southeast NE, behind this initial surge or rain, there may not be much behind it overnight. For Friday, We`ll have a continue chance of showers and thunderstorms that lingers into Friday night. The severe weather threat seems low during this time with SPC keeping just general thunderstorms forecast. High temperatures Friday should only reach the lower 70s. Saturday during the day should be a beautiful day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another quick moving wave could bring additional thunderstorms to the area Saturday night, which could linger into Sunday morning. Another short wave moving through the region could bring additional Thunderstorms Sunday night that lingers into early Monday morning. SPC has a 15% probability for severe storms to our north, but the CSU machine learning models would indicate a higher probability for severe weather into our area. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday in the lower to middle 80s. There is another pretty strong system coming into the area Tuesday which could bring more thunderstorms into the area, which could be on the strong side. Forecast confidence by Wednesday and Thursday next week is pretty low as the ECMWF has a strong closed low over the Mid Missouri Valley while the GFS has a ridge. NBM has a chance of rain on Wednesday but dry on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A frontal boundary has stalled across northeast Nebraska and will continue to train storms near KOFK through the overnight hours leading to occasional showers and storms moving near or into the terminal through the next few hours. This could last as long as through 12Z, but for now have it in the TAF through 09Z. Other than that, the next concern is MVFR/IFR cigs spreading across the area overnight. These cigs will hang around through the morning hours with occasional showers or drizzle reducing visibility. Cigs will lift to VFR by Friday afternoon, but we`ll see additional scattered showers and storms develop which may impact the terminals through Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will main primarily out of the southeast, apart from occasionally becoming variable near stronger showers and thunderstorms. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...McCoy