478
FXUS63 KOAX 051033
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon. A few
  stronger gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.

- Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to
  mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Today and Thursday...

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and
the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Thankfully dewpoints in the
50s and 40s will keep it from feeling excessively humid.

The passage of a weak cold front could spark a line of spotty
showers and storms this afternoon and evening, according to the
latest CAM runs. A few of these could be capable of producing gusty
winds, as forecast soundings indicate winds of around 50 kts near
the top of the mixed layer. Otherwise, the forecast calls for much
quieter weather over the next several days. A high pressure system
will set up over the southwestern CONUS, keeping drier northwesterly
flow locked in over the Central Plains.


Friday and Beyond...

By Friday afternoon, a weak shortwave is expected to ripple along
the periphery of the upper ridge, bringing a chance for a few
showers and storms to the forecast area. The best chance for
precipitation will be over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
where more abundant moisture could be present.

Precipitation will diminish Saturday morning and early afternoon,
with pleasant weather expected through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s through Sunday.

By Monday, models continue to show a low pressure system dropping
south out of Canada, potentially breaking down the ridge and
bringing rain chances back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with southwest to
west winds through mid to late afternoon and gusts nearing 25
kts at times by mid to late morning. A front will then slide
through with winds becoming northwesterly behind it and
weakening this evening. The front could also lead to some
showers and storms, especially at OMA and LNK somewhere in the
20-23Z window. However, latest guidance keeps the line of
precip pretty broken, so confidence in a storm hitting a TAF
site is rather low at this time. If a storm moves through, could
see brief MVFR conditions with gusts of 35-40 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA