Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
478 FXUS63 KOAX 051033 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 533 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon. A few stronger gusts up to 40-50 mph possible. - Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Today and Thursday... Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Thankfully dewpoints in the 50s and 40s will keep it from feeling excessively humid. The passage of a weak cold front could spark a line of spotty showers and storms this afternoon and evening, according to the latest CAM runs. A few of these could be capable of producing gusty winds, as forecast soundings indicate winds of around 50 kts near the top of the mixed layer. Otherwise, the forecast calls for much quieter weather over the next several days. A high pressure system will set up over the southwestern CONUS, keeping drier northwesterly flow locked in over the Central Plains. Friday and Beyond... By Friday afternoon, a weak shortwave is expected to ripple along the periphery of the upper ridge, bringing a chance for a few showers and storms to the forecast area. The best chance for precipitation will be over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa where more abundant moisture could be present. Precipitation will diminish Saturday morning and early afternoon, with pleasant weather expected through the weekend. Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s through Sunday. By Monday, models continue to show a low pressure system dropping south out of Canada, potentially breaking down the ridge and bringing rain chances back into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with southwest to west winds through mid to late afternoon and gusts nearing 25 kts at times by mid to late morning. A front will then slide through with winds becoming northwesterly behind it and weakening this evening. The front could also lead to some showers and storms, especially at OMA and LNK somewhere in the 20-23Z window. However, latest guidance keeps the line of precip pretty broken, so confidence in a storm hitting a TAF site is rather low at this time. If a storm moves through, could see brief MVFR conditions with gusts of 35-40 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...CA