Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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129 FXUS63 KOAX 062238 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 538 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible Friday evening through early Saturday. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - The first "hot" weather of the season looks increasingly likely late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A sunny afternoon for the entire Corn Belt had me zooming out to find a couple of isolated clouds south of the KC metro. Temps this afternoon have outperformed the previous forecast by a couple of degrees with most locations peaking near 80 to 83F. Breezy northwesterly winds are gusting up to 35 mph at times but are forecast to slow this evening and become light and variable overnight under a surface high. .FRIDAY... High to mid-level clouds begin building into the area Friday morning along a developing warm front pushing in from the west. Dewpoints, mostly in the 30s now, will begin climbing overnight as the light and variable winds get their groove back and become southerly tomorrow. By mid-day Friday, the warm front will be in eastern Nebraska - draped north to south - and dewpoints will be closer to 50F before they peak near 60 in the afternoon and evening, especially south of the Platte River. High temps along the SD state line will peak near 80 with 90 possible along Nebraska`s southern border. Hodographs reveal significant shear of 50 knots throughout the day. Southerly surface flow develops under westerly 700hPa flow and northwesterly 500hPa flow. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should be sufficient for supercell development. North central Nebraska may see upscale growth of an MCS that later pushes into this CWA. With shear vectors almost entirely in the same direction of motion of this prospective MCS, it would become outflow dominant quickly. It may still pose a wind threat, but the tornado threat with this second round of storms will be near zero. In eastern Nebraska, we may be impacted by both the MCS and the chance of supercells earlier in the afternoon and evening especially on the nose of the developing LLJ and near the warm front. The tornado threat will be highest in the vicinity of the eastward moving warm front. Weaker convection may continue through sunrise along the KS state line. .THE WEEKEND.... Saturday will be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 70s with northwesterly flow of 10-20 mph. Sunday will be a near repeat. Both days will be dry with a chance of scattered convection along the cold front slipping through Kansas. Scattered PoPs have been maintained along the state line. The next best chance of convection (30%) will come on Tuesday with the passage of a weak cold front pushing through the increasingly humid atmosphere. Southerly flow returns on Wednesday and Thursday and temps are likely to push past 90F for the first time for many. (NBM probability of hitting 90F in Omaha on Thursday is 78%). That`s a full month behind the thirty year average and the second latest date in the past 30 years (6/16 vs 6/17/2009) for the city. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 528 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Gusty northwesterly winds at all TAF sites will diminish below 10 knots by 02Z. Until then, gusts of 20-30 knots will be possible. Light winds around 5 knots by 06Z will become south/southeasterly at all TAF sites by 15Z. Winds will strengthen to 10-15 knots by 17Z, with scattered showers developing across northeast Nebraska (KOFK) by 21Z. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Nebraska and move southeast across the area by the end and just beyond this TAF period. All TAF sites will have the potential to see thunderstorms with a few storms potentially being severe. Wind gust to 60 knots and severe hail will be the main threats with the stronger storms. Will add more details on this in the next TAF issuance at 06Z tonight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Darrah