421
FXUS63 KOAX 061720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight showers and storms possible Friday night - early
  Saturday. A few storms could become strong to severe.

- Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to
  low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and Friday...

Skies remained mostly clear overnight as temperatures settled into
the 50s and 60s by 2 AM. A few showers and storms may begin to
develop along boundary draped from south-central Nebraska into
northeast Kansas early this morning. While these showers could
clip the southwestern edge of our CWA this morning,
precipitation will have to contend with dry air near the
surface. Any showers that may develop would be short-lived, with
the vast majority of the forecast area remaining dry for at
least the next 24 hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be
about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs reaching
the upper 70s to low 80s. Northwest winds will remain breezy
today, at 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 25-35 mph.

High pressure stationed over the southwestern CONUS will keep
northwesterly flow in place over the Central Plains through the end
of the week. A shortwave rippling through the upper level flow will
bring us a chance for rain Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Notably, a couple of the more recent CAM runs produce a few stronger
storms within the high sheer/low CAPE environment, which could skirt
along our far western counties, with a potential MCS pushing through
southeast Nebraska. Hail and strong winds will likely be the main
threats, however clockwise turning hodographs/southeasterly backed
surface winds suggest at least some tornado potential over our
southwestern counties. Accordingly, we have been placed in a
Marginal Risk by SPC, with a Slight reaching into southeast
Nebraska. Current guidance suggests precipitation amounts around
0.10-0.50", with the best chance for locally higher amounts over
southeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Beyond...

Precipitation will diminish Saturday morning and early afternoon,
with pleasant weather expected through the weekend and into early
next week. Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s
through Monday.

By Tuesday, models continue to show a low pressure system dropping
south out of Canada, breaking down the ridge and bringing rain
chances back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Quiet weather with VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours. Gusty northwesterly winds will continue until sunset
with light and variable winds will settle into the area. Friday
morning brings light southeasterly flow before a chance of
thunderstorms develops Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen