045
FXUS63 KOAX 010312
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1012 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will linger into tonight. If storms repeat
  over areas that received heavy rainfall last night, some
  localized flooding could occur.

- Additional storms could move in by late Saturday
  afternoon/evening (20-40% chance) with daily chances
  continuing into at least Wednesday. The highest chances for
  strong to severe storms look to be Sunday and Tuesday.

- Slightly warmer through next week with highs in the upper 70s
  and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The stalled frontal boundary remains from south central NE
through northwest MO. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have
gone up along this boundary. While the storms do not have large
hail or gusty winds, they have however produced several funnel
clouds, that is coincident with 0-3km CAPE and low level
vorticity in the vicinity of the boundary, thus the non
supercell tornado is actually peaking with values of 1-2 units.
These have typically been weak, short lived, may extend a few
hundred feet below the cloud base, and could briefly touch down.
And unfortunately, this trend could continue for another hour
or two late this afternoon. Elsewhere, there have been spotty,
light showers. Will maintain the highest Pops tonight in the
axis of the stalled frontal boundary in the 50-80% range, with
precipitation gradually diminishing after midnight before ending
by daybreak Saturday.

Saturday during the day should be very nice with dry weather and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

There is another weak short wave that could bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday night, with Pops in the
20-30% range. Severe weather probabilities remain to our west
Saturday night.

Sunday will have 50-60% Pops during the day as weak zonal flow
remains aloft. The ECMWF still has pretty robust with precip
develop during the day Sunday, but the GFS is pretty dry. And
then the GFS GFS has a pretty strong frontal boundary moving
into the region Sunday night, which brings the next real threat
for severe storms and locally heavy rains moving from west to
east.

And the next best chance for precipitation after that comes
Tuesday. Previous models were perhaps a little slower, and now
12z models are perhaps a little faster, so there remains some
uncertainty on the timing of the that weather system and the
expected strength.

And then Wednesday through Friday is looking pretty dry and
pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain has moved off to the east for the night and we`re starting
to see low clouds spread across eastern Nebraska. Patches of
MVFR cigs are expanding, with MVFR cigs expected at all the
terminals later tonight, possibly lowering to IFR as well. Winds
are light generally out of the southeast but will be turning
northwesterly later tonight. We`ll see cigs slowly improve as
cigs break up Saturday morning with winds shifting to
northeasterly, easterly, then southeasterly again by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...McCoy