518
FXUS63 KOAX 250435
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant weather through Saturday afternoon, then
  again on Memorial Day.

- Thunderstorm chances increase to 60 to 90 percent Saturday
  night with a Slight Risk of severe storms south of I80, with
  a 15 to 30 percent chance for wind and hail. There is also a
  slight risk of excessive heavy rainfall.

- Still a marginal risk of severe storms in extreme southeast NE
  and southwest IA Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The latest satellite view shows generally clear skies across the
central plains as widespread convection in eastern Iowa shifts
east. Expect dry weather through, at least, Saturday morning as
weak mid-level ridging dominates the short-term forecast.
Overnight low temperatures should hover near 50 degrees tonight
with daytime highs on Saturday pushing into the mid to upper
70s.

By Saturday afternoon mid-level flow shifts to southwest
allowing for some moisture return as precipitable water values
push toward 1.5 inches in the southern areas. Under this modest
southwest flow regime, a weak mid-level shortwave will move
through the area while a surface low pressure system to tracks
well south of our area from eastern Colorado on 00z Sunday to
eastern Kansas by 12z Sunday. The placement of these forcing
mechanisms, and generally weak instability locally, will favor
areas to our south for the highest severe weather threat. As a
result, only areas of far southern Nebraska and extreme
southwest Iowa are in the Slight Risk area for Saturday night,
with the Marginal threat area noted all the way north to the
South Dakota border. Will monitor for the potential for this
severe weather risk increasing if higher instabilities can
pusher farther north as some models indicate. The primary
threats for Saturday night are wind and hail, with isolated
tornadoes possible along the Nebraska- Kansas border. Also, and
not to be forgotten, is the heavy rainfall threat. The Weather
Prediction Center has most of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa in the Slight Risk for heavy rainfall. This is due to
modest available moisture and predicted storm motions favoring
some training, especially along the Nebraska-Kansas border.

Expect a slight break in active weather for Sunday morning, then
attention turns to additional, though weaker, storm development
as another mid-level trough moves through Nebraska and Iowa. At
this time only a small portion of the area is in a Marginal Risk
for severe weather as the system exits the region.

Generally quiet weather returns for Memorial Day with high
temperatures set to linger in the 70s. There is a slight chance
for showers along and east of the Missouri River as a shortwave
tracks through northwest Iowa. Beyond Memorial Day expects highs
generally near 80 with no significant chances for rain or
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Light south southeast winds
less than 5 knots at TAF issuance at all 3 locations. Winds do
increase to 13 to 16 knots by 14-16z, with gusts 22-26 knots
16-01z, with gusts ending by 26/00-01z. Thunderstorm chances
will be increasing at KOFK/KLNK toward the end of the TAF period
26/04-06z, and likely not at KOMA until 26/06-10z, just beyond
this forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pearson
AVIATION...DeWald